Sports Betting Truth Major League Baseball Model Outputs
Results
| Moneyline | | Run Line(1.5) | | Overs | | Unders | |
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| W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit |
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| 5-12-2021 | 6 | 6 | 50.0 | -0.98 | | 4 | 1 | 80.0 | 6.38 | 2.69 | | 5 | 6 | 45.5 | -1.84 | | 3 | 1 | 75.0 | 5.90 | 1.19 | | 1 | 3 | 25.0 | -2.09 | | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 13.93 | | 3 | 2 | 60.0 | 0.75 | | 3 | 1 | 75.0 | 3.21 | 1.75 |
| Last 14 | 76 | 75 | 50.3 | -7.84 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.59 | 0.80 | | 82 | 75 | 52.2 | -1.57 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 21.28 | 1.45 | | 39 | 34 | 53.4 | 1.52 | | 37 | 31 | 54.4 | 0.53 | 2.61 | | 28 | 39 | 41.8 | -13.94 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.82 | 0.91 |
| Year to Date | 231 | 268 | 46.3 | -59.42 | | 71 | 64 | 52.6 | 7.67 | -0.34 | | 256 | 258 | 49.8 | -34.47 | | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 21.28 | 0.45 | | 162 | 135 | 54.5 | 11.40 | | 75 | 51 | 59.5 | 8.08 | 16.83 | | 93 | 104 | 47.2 | -20.60 | | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 21.23 | -1.00 |
The model is back up and running for the time being. I can't guarantee daily updates or that I will continue for the rest of the year but I just wanted to return to it for now.
Games Of 5-12-2021
| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -130 | O 7.5 | 105 | 160 | | 60 | 11mph | | 1 | BAL | R | Matt Harvey | | 3.3 | 7.0 | 0.3 | | 38.1 | 55.9 | 44.1 | | 0 | 27.9 | 1.5 | | -0.4 | -0.6 | -4.7 | | | | | | | | |
| | -1.5 | 110 | U 7.5 | -125 | -175 | | | In | | 7 | NYM | R | Taijuan Walker | | 4.2 | 8.2 | 0.4 | | 61.9 | 44.1 | 56.0 | | 7 | 54.2 | 2.5 | | -1.7 | -3.5 | 0.4 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 100 | O 7.0 | -125 | -161 | | 57 | 5mph | | 5 | CIN | R | Sonny Gray | | 4.6 | 9.1 | 0.2 | | 71.2 | 55.9 | 45.0 | | 1 | 60.7 | 2.6 | | 9.5 | 5.9 | -10.6 | | ● | ● | | | 0.62 | 1.00 | |
| | 1.5 | -120 | U 7.0 | 105 | 135 | | | L-R | | 1 | PIT | R | Trevor Cahill | | 2.5 | 6.3 | 0.3 | | 28.9 | 44.1 | 55.1 | | 1 | 22.6 | 1.2 | | -13.7 | -10.4 | 6.3 | | | | ● | | | | 1.05 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -169 | O 8.5 | 100 | 105 | | 53 | 7mph | | 1 | CHC | R | Zach Davies | | 4.6 | 8.3 | 0.4 | | 43.1 | 61.6 | 54.8 | | 0 | 41.9 | 2.7 | | -5.7 | -1.2 | 4.7 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
| | -1.5 | 145 | U 8.5 | -120 | -125 | | | In | | 2 | CLE | L | Sam Hentges | | 4.8 | 8.8 | 0.3 | | 56.9 | 38.4 | 45.3 | | 0 | 46.1 | 2.8 | | 1.3 | -2.4 | -9.3 | | ● | | | | 0.80 | | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 110 | O 6.5 | -120 | -150 | | 58 | 5mph | | 5 | SD | R | Yu Darvish | | 2.8 | 6.1 | 0.3 | | 45.2 | 28.7 | 35.0 | | 1 | 33.6 | 1.7 | | -14.8 | -19.0 | -19.5 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | -130 | U 6.5 | 100 | 140 | | | In | | 3 | COL | R | Jon Gray | | 2.9 | 6.0 | 0.3 | | 54.8 | 71.4 | 65.0 | | 1 | 46.8 | 2.1 | | 13.1 | 14.8 | 15.0 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | -1 | -1 |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 110 | O 7.5 | -110 | -154 | | 65 | 5mph | | 0 | SD | L | Blake Snell | | 4.4 | 7.6 | 0.3 | | 52.7 | 39.9 | 51.9 | | 0 | 45.8 | 3.1 | | -7.9 | -7.8 | -0.5 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | -130 | U 7.5 | -110 | 125 | | | In | | 0 | COL | L | Austin Gomber | | 3.9 | 6.9 | 0.3 | | 47.3 | 60.2 | 48.2 | | 0 | 41.3 | 2.9 | | 2.9 | 3.6 | -4.2 | | ● | ● | | | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 120 | O 8.5 | -105 | -130 | | 66 | 5mph | | 5 | PHI | R | Zack Wheeler | | 4.8 | 9.3 | 0.3 | | 62.9 | 50.6 | 43.3 | | 1 | 56.2 | 2.8 | | 6.4 | 5.1 | -7.9 | | ● | ● | | | 0.77 | 1.20 | |
| | 1.5 | -141 | U 8.5 | -115 | 105 | | | In | | 2 | WSH | L | Jon Lester | | 3.4 | 8.2 | 0.3 | | 37.1 | 49.5 | 56.7 | | 0 | 28.4 | 1.8 | | -11.7 | -9.1 | 3.2 | | | | ● | | | | 0.87 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -141 | O 9.5 | -105 | 135 | | 59 | 6mph | | 4 | OAK | R | James Kaprielian | | 6.0 | 10.3 | 0.2 | | 51.5 | 67.3 | 61.2 | | 3 | 49.9 | 3.4 | | 8.9 | 8.7 | 10.0 | | ● | ● | ● | | 1.35 | 0.71 | -1 |
| | -1.5 | 120 | U 9.5 | -115 | -161 | | | L-R | | 1 | BOS | L | Eduardo Rodriguez | | 5.4 | 9.5 | 0.3 | | 48.6 | 32.8 | 38.8 | | 1 | 38.6 | 2.9 | | -13.1 | -12.7 | -14.7 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 110 | O 8.0 | -115 | -154 | | 60 | 7mph | | 2 | KC | L | Danny Duffy | | 5.1 | 8.6 | 0.3 | | 64.5 | 51.3 | 49.1 | | 2 | 54.7 | 2.9 | | 3.9 | 3.6 | -4.4 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
| | 1.5 | -130 | U 8.0 | -105 | 125 | | | L-R | | 4 | DET | R | Casey Mize | | 3.5 | 7.5 | 0.5 | | 35.5 | 48.8 | 50.9 | | 4 | 29.2 | 1.8 | | -8.9 | -7.8 | -0.3 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | -115 | O 7.0 | -115 | -189 | | 72 | 0mph | | 1 | NYY | R | Gerrit Cole | | 4.8 | 9.7 | 0.2 | | 68.7 | 54.0 | 50.7 | | 0 | 55.8 | 2.5 | | 3.3 | 0.5 | -2.8 | | ● | ● | | | 0.53 | -1 | |
| | 1.5 | -105 | U 7.0 | -105 | 155 | | | Unknown | | 0 | TB | L | Ryan Yarbrough | | 2.9 | 6.5 | 0.2 | | 31.4 | 46.0 | 49.3 | | 0 | 26.0 | 1.5 | | -7.9 | -5.2 | -1.9 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -208 | O 7.5 | -115 | -105 | | 51 | 10mph | | 4 | TOR | L | Hyun Jin Ryu | | 5.4 | 9.7 | 0.4 | | 60.2 | 76.8 | 62.2 | | 0 | 55.5 | 3.2 | | 8.9 | 9.2 | 8.7 | | ● | ● | ● | | 0.95 | 0.48 | -1 |
| | -1.5 | 175 | U 7.5 | -105 | -115 | | | L-R | | 1 | ATL | L | Max Fried | | 4.0 | 8.0 | 0.2 | | 39.9 | 23.3 | 37.9 | | 1 | 29.8 | 2.1 | | -13.6 | -13.1 | -13.4 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -145 | O 7.5 | 100 | 145 | | 72 | 0mph | | 1 | STL | R | John Gant | | 2.9 | 6.5 | 0.3 | | 41.5 | 64.3 | 32.0 | | 0 | 30.0 | 1.3 | | 0.7 | 5.1 | -18.1 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
| | -1.5 | 125 | U 7.5 | -120 | -175 | | | Unknown | | 4 | MIL | R | Brandon Woodruff | | 3.3 | 6.5 | 0.3 | | 58.5 | 35.7 | 68.1 | | 0 | 47.2 | 1.9 | | -5.1 | -8.7 | 13.5 | | | | ● | | | | 0.83 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -175 | O 8.0 | 100 | 125 | | 54 | 5mph | | 8 | MIN | L | J.A. Happ | | 3.9 | 7.7 | 0.2 | | 42.3 | 63.4 | 46.8 | | 3 | 37.5 | 2.0 | | -2.2 | -0.2 | -3.2 | | | | | | | | |
| | -1.5 | 150 | U 8.0 | -120 | -149 | | | In | | 13 | CWS | L | Dallas Keuchel | | 4.3 | 7.7 | 0.4 | | 57.8 | 36.6 | 53.3 | | 12 | 46.4 | 2.4 | | -2.1 | -3.4 | -1.3 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -189 | O 8.5 | -110 | 110 | | 72 | 11mph | | 1 | LAA | L | Andrew Heaney | | 5.1 | 9.8 | 0.4 | | 50.1 | 67.3 | 60.2 | | 0 | 44.8 | 2.8 | | 2.4 | 1.9 | 7.8 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | -1 | 0.91 |
| | -1.5 | 160 | U 8.5 | -110 | -135 | | | In | | 9 | HOU | R | Jose Urquidy | | 4.9 | 9.2 | 0.2 | | 50.0 | 32.8 | 39.9 | | 3 | 41.9 | 2.6 | | -7.5 | -5.7 | -12.5 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -180 | O 7.5 | -110 | 135 | | 72 | 0mph | | 3 | MIA | R | Nick Neidert | | 3.5 | 7.0 | 0.4 | | 36.3 | 56.2 | 48.6 | | 3 | 23.9 | 1.4 | | -6.3 | -8.1 | -3.8 | | | | | | | | |
| | -1.5 | 160 | U 7.5 | -110 | -161 | | | Unknown | | 2 | ARI | R | Zac Gallen | | 4.5 | 8.5 | 0.3 | | 63.8 | 43.9 | 51.4 | | 2 | 59.4 | 2.8 | | 2.1 | 5.4 | -1.0 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | 100 | O 8.0 | -105 | 220 | | 65 | 7mph | | 1 | SEA | R | Justin Dunn | | 4.2 | 8.7 | 0.3 | | 29.4 | 47.0 | 65.2 | | 1 | 27.6 | 2.1 | | -1.9 | -3.0 | 13.9 | | | | ● | | | | 0.00 |
| | -1.5 | -120 | U 8.0 | -115 | -278 | | | Out | | 7 | LAD | L | Julio Urias | | 6.1 | 8.7 | 0.3 | | 70.7 | 53.0 | 34.9 | | 6 | 57.2 | 3.5 | | -2.9 | -1.5 | -18.6 | | | | | | | | |
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