Sports Betting Truth Major League Baseball Model Outputs
Results
| Moneyline | | Run Line(1.5) | | Overs | | Unders | |
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| W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit |
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| 5-14-2021 | 6 | 10 | 37.5 | -3.49 | | 3 | 2 | 60.0 | 6.30 | 0.71 | | 5 | 10 | 33.3 | -6.05 | | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 23.28 | -1.00 | | 6 | 5 | 54.5 | 0.16 | | 3 | 2 | 60.0 | 9.20 | 0.65 | | 2 | 3 | 40.0 | -1.33 | | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 18.33 | -1.00 |
| Last 14 | 76 | 75 | 50.3 | -7.84 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.59 | 0.80 | | 82 | 75 | 52.2 | -1.57 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 21.28 | 1.45 | | 39 | 34 | 53.4 | 1.52 | | 37 | 31 | 54.4 | 0.53 | 2.61 | | 28 | 39 | 41.8 | -13.94 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.82 | 0.91 |
| Year to Date | 231 | 268 | 46.3 | -59.42 | | 71 | 64 | 52.6 | 7.67 | -0.34 | | 256 | 258 | 49.8 | -34.47 | | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 21.28 | 0.45 | | 162 | 135 | 54.5 | 11.40 | | 75 | 51 | 59.5 | 8.08 | 16.83 | | 93 | 104 | 47.2 | -20.60 | | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 21.23 | -1.00 |
The model is back up and running for the time being. I can't guarantee daily updates or that I will continue for the rest of the year but I just wanted to return to it for now.
Games Of 5-14-2021
| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -125 | O 6.0 | -130 | 185 | | 66 | 6mph | | 6 | KC | R | Brad Keller | | 3.2 | 5.7 | 0.2 | | 36.7 | 57.6 | 60.3 | | 5 | 31.9 | 2.3 | | 1.6 | 2.0 | 3.8 | | ● | ● | ● | | 1.85 | 0.80 | 0.77 |
| | -1.5 | 105 | U 6.0 | 110 | -205 | | | In | | 2 | CWS | R | Lucas Giolito | | 4.2 | 7.4 | 0.2 | | 63.3 | 42.5 | 39.7 | | 2 | 54.4 | 3.2 | | -3.9 | -6.3 | -7.9 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | -120 | O 7.5 | 105 | -200 | | 67 | 4mph | | 2 | SF | R | Kevin Gausman | | 4.6 | 8.0 | 0.2 | | 68.9 | 54.9 | 39.9 | | 0 | 58.3 | 2.4 | | 2.2 | 0.4 | -8.9 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
| | 1.5 | 100 | U 7.5 | -125 | 170 | | | Out | | 3 | PIT | R | Miguel Yajure | | 2.5 | 6.6 | 0.3 | | 31.2 | 45.1 | 60.2 | | 0 | 22.2 | 1.2 | | -5.9 | -4.9 | 4.6 | | | | ● | | | | 0.80 |
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| Box | | -1.5 | -110 | O 8.5 | -120 | -185 | | 69 | 4mph | | 5 | NYY | R | Corey Kluber | | 5.5 | 9.6 | 0.3 | | 59.8 | 47.8 | 57.0 | | 2 | 52.6 | 3.3 | | -5.1 | -4.6 | 2.4 | | | | ● | | | | 0.83 |
| | 1.5 | -110 | U 8.5 | 100 | 155 | | | Out | | 4 | BAL | R | Dean Kremer | | 4.1 | 8.0 | 0.3 | | 40.2 | 52.3 | 43.1 | | 4 | 33.7 | 2.5 | | 1.0 | -0.1 | -7.0 | | ● | | | | -1 | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -172 | O 9.5 | -115 | 105 | | 68 | 4mph | | 3 | LAA | R | Griffin Canning | | 5.2 | 9.6 | 0.4 | | 41.4 | 57.8 | 57.5 | | 0 | 35.2 | 2.8 | | -7.4 | -5.5 | 4.0 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
| | -1.5 | 145 | U 9.5 | -105 | -125 | | | Out | | 4 | BOS | R | Nick Pivetta | | 5.8 | 9.4 | 0.3 | | 58.7 | 42.3 | 42.5 | | 2 | 53.6 | 3.6 | | 3.1 | 1.4 | -8.7 | | ● | ● | | | 0.80 | -1 | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 120 | O 9.0 | 100 | -135 | | 68 | 7mph | | 4 | CHC | R | Jake Arrieta | | 6.4 | 9.6 | 0.3 | | 63.9 | 54.1 | 63.5 | | 4 | 59.6 | 4.0 | | 6.4 | 8.6 | 13.5 | | ● | ● | ● | | 0.74 | 1.20 | -1 |
| | 1.5 | -141 | U 9.0 | -120 | 115 | | | In | | 2 | DET | L | Tarik Skubal | | 4.5 | 8.7 | 0.4 | | 36.2 | 46.0 | 36.5 | | 0 | 29.5 | 2.6 | | -10.4 | -12.6 | -18.1 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -149 | O 6.5 | -120 | 135 | | 72 | 0mph | | 2 | NYM | L | David Peterson | | 2.8 | 6.3 | 0.4 | | 28.2 | 46.8 | 57.4 | | 2 | 21.2 | 1.3 | | -14.4 | -13.0 | 2.9 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
| | -1.5 | 130 | U 6.5 | 100 | -161 | | | Unknown | | 3 | TB | R | Tyler Glasnow | | 4.8 | 8.0 | 0.1 | | 71.8 | 53.2 | 42.6 | | 0 | 61.9 | 2.9 | | 10.1 | 9.7 | -7.4 | | ● | ● | | | 0.62 | -1 | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -135 | O 10.5 | -115 | 135 | | 80 | 13mph | | 5 | PHI | R | Vince Velasquez | | 6.2 | 11.1 | 0.3 | | 48.9 | 64.5 | 60.1 | | 0 | 44.4 | 3.7 | | 6.3 | 7.0 | 6.6 | | ● | ● | ● | | 1.35 | 0.74 | -1 |
| | -1.5 | 115 | U 10.5 | -105 | -161 | | | In | | 1 | TOR | L | Steven Matz | | 6.0 | 9.6 | 0.4 | | 51.2 | 35.6 | 39.9 | | 0 | 44.1 | 3.8 | | -10.5 | -11.0 | -11.3 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -192 | O 7.5 | -110 | 115 | | 72 | 0mph | | 6 | ATL | L | Drew Smyly | | 4.9 | 8.7 | 0.2 | | 50.4 | 69.7 | 62.0 | | 4 | 45.5 | 2.7 | | 3.9 | 3.9 | 9.6 | | ● | ● | ● | | 1.15 | 0.52 | 0.91 |
| | -1.5 | 160 | U 7.5 | -110 | -135 | | | Unknown | | 3 | MIL | R | Adrian Houser | | 4.4 | 8.3 | 0.4 | | 49.6 | 30.4 | 38.1 | | 1 | 41.1 | 2.6 | | -7.8 | -8.1 | -14.3 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 145 | O 8.5 | -120 | -110 | | 59 | 9mph | | 6 | OAK | R | Frankie Montas | | 6.0 | 9.3 | 0.2 | | 44.2 | 33.6 | 77.0 | | 3 | 39.3 | 3.5 | | -8.2 | -7.2 | 22.5 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
| | 1.5 | -172 | U 8.5 | 100 | -110 | | | R-L | | 1 | MIN | R | Matt Shoemaker | | 6.4 | 10.6 | 0.2 | | 55.9 | 66.4 | 23.0 | | 0 | 50.2 | 4.1 | | 3.5 | 3.2 | -27.0 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | 100 | O 9.0 | -110 | 180 | | 79 | 9mph | | 4 | TEX | L | Wes Benjamin | | 5.5 | 10.5 | 0.3 | | 43.4 | 60.6 | 66.5 | | 2 | 35.3 | 3.0 | | 7.7 | 10.6 | 14.1 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | -1 | 0.91 |
| | -1.5 | -120 | U 9.0 | -110 | -227 | | | Out | | 10 | HOU | R | Zack Greinke | | 6.0 | 10.8 | 0.2 | | 56.6 | 39.4 | 33.5 | | 10 | 50.2 | 3.7 | | -12.8 | -15.1 | -18.9 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -140 | O 6.5 | -105 | 165 | | 62 | 6mph | | 1 | KC | R | Jakob Junis | | 3.0 | 5.8 | 0.2 | | 42.0 | 63.5 | 45.8 | | 1 | 35.0 | 2.0 | | 4.2 | 5.1 | -5.5 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
| | -1.5 | 120 | U 6.5 | -115 | -180 | | | In | | 3 | CWS | R | Michael Kopech | | 3.5 | 6.7 | 0.3 | | 58.1 | 36.6 | 54.3 | | 3 | 50.1 | 2.7 | | -6.2 | -8.9 | 0.8 | | | | ● | | | | 0.87 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -196 | O 10.5 | -115 | -105 | | 68 | 6mph | | 6 | CIN | L | Wade Miley | | 5.9 | 10.1 | 0.3 | | 77.6 | 89.5 | 30.5 | | 2 | 67.9 | 3.3 | | 26.3 | 23.3 | -23.0 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
| | -1.5 | 165 | U 10.5 | -105 | -115 | | | Out | | 9 | COL | R | German Marquez | | 2.8 | 6.6 | 0.4 | | 22.5 | 10.5 | 69.6 | | 8 | 18.5 | 1.3 | | -31.0 | -27.2 | 18.3 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
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| Box | | -1.5 | -125 | O 9.0 | 100 | -196 | | 72 | 0mph | | 17 | WSH | R | Max Scherzer | | 4.2 | 9.5 | 0.3 | | 59.8 | 44.3 | 30.7 | | 11 | 48.9 | 2.2 | | -6.5 | -11.3 | -19.3 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | 105 | U 9.0 | -120 | 165 | | | Unknown | | 2 | ARI | R | Riley Smith | | 3.2 | 6.7 | 0.4 | | 40.3 | 55.7 | 69.3 | | 0 | 32.2 | 1.6 | | 2.5 | 6.9 | 14.8 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | -1 | -1 |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 145 | O 7.5 | -110 | -115 | | 68 | 7mph | | 3 | CLE | R | Aaron Civale | | 4.8 | 9.6 | 0.4 | | 55.9 | 41.9 | 57.0 | | 1 | 45.2 | 2.5 | | 2.4 | 1.1 | 4.6 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | -1 | 0.91 |
| | 1.5 | -172 | U 7.5 | -110 | -105 | | | In | | 7 | SEA | R | Chris Flexen | | 4.1 | 7.9 | 0.3 | | 44.2 | 58.1 | 43.1 | | 3 | 39.4 | 2.3 | | -7.1 | -5.1 | -9.3 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -115 | O 6.5 | -120 | 185 | | 63 | 8mph | | 6 | MIA | R | Sandy Alcantara | | 3.7 | 8.1 | 0.4 | | 37.6 | 57.4 | 63.8 | | 5 | 33.0 | 1.9 | | 2.5 | 3.9 | 9.2 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | -1 | 0.83 |
| | -1.5 | -105 | U 6.5 | 100 | -238 | | | Out | | 9 | LAD | L | Clayton Kershaw | | 4.6 | 7.8 | 0.3 | | 62.4 | 42.6 | 36.3 | | 8 | 49.8 | 2.5 | | -8.0 | -8.6 | -13.8 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -145 | O 7.0 | 105 | 160 | | 62 | 7mph | | 4 | STL | R | Johan Oviedo | | 3.2 | 6.9 | 0.3 | | 43.9 | 65.9 | 41.2 | | 1 | 31.4 | 1.5 | | 5.4 | 6.7 | -7.6 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | 0.69 | |
| | -1.5 | 125 | U 7.0 | -125 | -192 | | | L-R | | 5 | SD | R | Joe Musgrove | | 3.5 | 6.7 | 0.4 | | 56.2 | 34.1 | 58.8 | | 3 | 48.4 | 2.2 | | -9.6 | -10.3 | 3.2 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
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