Sports Betting Truth Major League Baseball Model Outputs
Results
| Moneyline | | Run Line(1.5) | | Overs | | Unders | |
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| W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit |
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| 5-18-2021 | 6 | 8 | 42.9 | -3.34 | | 4 | 1 | 80.0 | 7.80 | 2.33 | | 8 | 5 | 61.5 | 2.45 | | 6 | 0 | 100.0 | 5.08 | 4.90 | | 7 | 4 | 63.6 | 2.30 | | 7 | 4 | 63.6 | 0.01 | 2.30 | | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 3.05 | 1.00 |
| Last 14 | 76 | 75 | 50.3 | -7.84 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.59 | 0.80 | | 82 | 75 | 52.2 | -1.57 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 21.28 | 1.45 | | 39 | 34 | 53.4 | 1.52 | | 37 | 31 | 54.4 | 0.53 | 2.61 | | 28 | 39 | 41.8 | -13.94 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.82 | 0.91 |
| Year to Date | 231 | 268 | 46.3 | -59.42 | | 71 | 64 | 52.6 | 7.67 | -0.34 | | 256 | 258 | 49.8 | -34.47 | | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 21.28 | 0.45 | | 162 | 135 | 54.5 | 11.40 | | 75 | 51 | 59.5 | 8.08 | 16.83 | | 93 | 104 | 47.2 | -20.60 | | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 21.23 | -1.00 |
The model is back up and running for the time being. I can't guarantee daily updates or that I will continue for the rest of the year but I just wanted to return to it for now.
Games Of 5-18-2021
| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -196 | O 8.0 | -120 | 105 | | 76 | 6mph | | 4 | SF | R | Anthony DeSclafan | | 6.2 | 10.5 | 0.2 | | 57.5 | 72.9 | 71.7 | | 3 | 53.7 | 3.6 | | 8.7 | 6.6 | 17.2 | | ● | ● | ● | | 1.05 | 0.51 | -1 |
| | -1.5 | 165 | U 8.0 | 100 | -125 | | | In | | 2 | CIN | R | Luis Castillo | | 5.0 | 8.8 | 0.2 | | 42.6 | 27.2 | 28.3 | | 1 | 33.5 | 2.7 | | -13.0 | -10.6 | -21.7 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | -105 | O 9.0 | -115 | -161 | | 75 | 6mph | | 13 | TB | R | Luis Patino | | 5.3 | 9.7 | 0.1 | | 52.9 | 41.5 | 53.5 | | 10 | 49.3 | 3.1 | | -8.8 | -9.8 | 0.0 | | | | ● | | | | 0.87 |
| | 1.5 | -115 | U 9.0 | -105 | 135 | | | Out | | 6 | BAL | R | Matt Harvey | | 4.6 | 8.7 | 0.3 | | 47.2 | 58.6 | 46.5 | | 4 | 36.8 | 2.6 | | 4.6 | 5.1 | -4.7 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -140 | O 7.5 | -120 | 161 | | 76 | 7mph | | 3 | MIA | R | Nick Neidert | | 3.4 | 7.9 | 0.4 | | 34.5 | 52.0 | 49.1 | | 1 | 24.5 | 1.5 | | -3.8 | -6.3 | -5.4 | | | | | | | | |
| | -1.5 | 120 | U 7.5 | 100 | -172 | | | Out | | 8 | PHI | R | Zack Wheeler | | 4.7 | 8.2 | 0.4 | | 65.5 | 48.0 | 50.9 | | 0 | 61.5 | 2.9 | | 2.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | | ● | ● | ● | | 0.58 | 1.20 | -1 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -155 | O 8.5 | 100 | 130 | | 74 | 10mph | | 4 | NYM | L | Thomas Szapucki | | 4.6 | 9.0 | 0.3 | | 40.0 | 59.1 | 58.5 | | 2 | 40.1 | 2.6 | | -3.5 | -1.7 | 8.5 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
| | -1.5 | 135 | U 8.5 | -120 | -140 | | | In | | 3 | ATL | L | Tucker Davidson | | 5.3 | 9.1 | 0.2 | | 60.0 | 41.0 | 41.5 | | 1 | 45.4 | 2.8 | | 1.7 | -1.6 | -13.0 | | ● | | | | -1 | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -161 | O 9.0 | -105 | 115 | | 83 | 18mph | | 0 | BOS | L | Eduardo Rodriguez | | 5.0 | 10.6 | 0.2 | | 40.9 | 56.5 | 61.6 | | 0 | 33.0 | 2.5 | | -5.7 | -5.2 | 10.3 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
| | -1.5 | 135 | U 9.0 | -115 | -135 | | | Out | | 8 | TOR | L | Hyun Jin Ryu | | 5.8 | 10.6 | 0.4 | | 59.2 | 43.6 | 38.5 | | 5 | 55.5 | 3.5 | | 1.7 | 1.0 | -15.0 | | ● | ● | | | 0.74 | 1.35 | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 140 | O 8.0 | -115 | -115 | | 66 | 13mph | | 4 | CWS | R | Lance Lynn | | 5.0 | 9.8 | 0.3 | | 58.0 | 45.0 | 53.7 | | 4 | 49.2 | 2.6 | | 4.5 | 3.3 | 0.2 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | -1 | 0.87 |
| | 1.5 | -164 | U 8.0 | -105 | -105 | | | In | | 5 | MIN | R | Michael Pineda | | 4.0 | 8.1 | 0.2 | | 42.0 | 55.1 | 46.3 | | 1 | 35.1 | 2.1 | | -9.2 | -7.1 | -4.9 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 135 | O 8.5 | -110 | -125 | | 67 | 11mph | | 3 | WSH | L | Patrick Corbin | | 4.9 | 9.8 | 0.3 | | 38.5 | 29.1 | 64.1 | | 2 | 34.6 | 2.7 | | -17.1 | -13.5 | 11.7 | | | | ● | | | | 0.91 |
| | 1.5 | -161 | U 8.5 | -110 | 105 | | | R-L | | 6 | CHC | R | Zach Davies | | 5.7 | 9.0 | 0.3 | | 61.5 | 71.0 | 35.9 | | 3 | 53.6 | 3.6 | | 12.7 | 9.3 | -16.5 | | ● | ● | | | 1.05 | 0.62 | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -185 | O 7.5 | -120 | 105 | | 69 | 13mph | | 2 | PIT | R | JT Brubaker | | 3.4 | 7.9 | 0.3 | | 36.2 | 55.7 | 47.0 | | 0 | 34.2 | 1.9 | | -12.6 | -9.2 | -7.6 | | | | | | | | |
| | -1.5 | 155 | U 7.5 | 100 | -125 | | | R-L | | 5 | STL | R | John Gant | | 4.4 | 8.6 | 0.3 | | 63.8 | 44.3 | 53.1 | | 5 | 51.3 | 2.6 | | 8.2 | 5.1 | 3.0 | | ● | ● | ● | | 0.80 | 1.55 | 1.00 |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 105 | O 8.5 | -115 | -149 | | 72 | 0mph | | 7 | NYY | R | Jameson Taillon | | 5.0 | 9.1 | 0.2 | | 55.6 | 42.5 | 54.4 | | 5 | 48.1 | 3.0 | | -4.3 | -6.3 | 0.9 | | | | ● | | | | 0.87 |
| | 1.5 | -125 | U 8.5 | -105 | 130 | | | Unknown | | 4 | TEX | R | Mike Foltynewicz | | 4.3 | 8.8 | 0.3 | | 44.5 | 57.5 | 45.6 | | 4 | 38.1 | 2.6 | | 1.0 | 1.9 | -5.6 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | -105 | O 7.5 | -120 | -172 | | 73 | 5mph | | 0 | MIL | R | Brandon Woodruff | | 5.2 | 9.3 | 0.3 | | 66.0 | 53.5 | 51.8 | | 0 | 54.7 | 2.7 | | 2.8 | 2.2 | -2.8 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
| | 1.5 | -115 | U 7.5 | 100 | 145 | | | R-L | | 2 | KC | L | Kris Bubic | | 3.2 | 7.3 | 0.3 | | 34.0 | 46.6 | 48.3 | | 0 | 28.2 | 1.5 | | -6.8 | -6.9 | -1.8 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -196 | O 7.5 | -110 | 100 | | 68 | 7mph | | 6 | CLE | R | Zach Plesac | | 4.5 | 8.6 | 0.4 | | 44.3 | 62.2 | 61.7 | | 5 | 37.7 | 2.4 | | -5.8 | -4.1 | 9.3 | | | | ● | | | | 0.91 |
| | -1.5 | 165 | U 7.5 | -110 | -120 | | | Out | | 5 | LAA | L | Andrew Heaney | | 4.9 | 9.3 | 0.4 | | 55.8 | 37.9 | 38.4 | | 4 | 47.6 | 2.8 | | 1.2 | 0.1 | -14.0 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -227 | O 8.0 | -115 | -115 | | 57 | 13mph | | 5 | HOU | R | Cristian Javier | | 5.4 | 11.5 | 0.1 | | 60.1 | 76.3 | 59.1 | | 3 | 55.9 | 3.2 | | 6.6 | 6.8 | 5.6 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | 0.44 | 0.87 |
| | -1.5 | 180 | U 8.0 | -105 | -105 | | | Out | | 6 | OAK | L | Sean Manaea | | 4.2 | 6.9 | 0.3 | | 39.9 | 23.8 | 40.9 | | 2 | 29.6 | 2.2 | | -11.3 | -12.0 | -10.3 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -196 | O 8.0 | 100 | 100 | | 51 | 6mph | | 5 | DET | R | Spencer Turnbull | | 4.7 | 7.2 | 0.4 | | 47.5 | 63.8 | 57.0 | | 2 | 44.0 | 2.6 | | -2.5 | -2.4 | 7.0 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
| | -1.5 | 165 | U 8.0 | -120 | -120 | | | In | | 0 | SEA | R | Justin Dunn | | 4.6 | 8.4 | 0.3 | | 52.5 | 36.2 | 43.0 | | 0 | 41.4 | 2.5 | | -2.0 | -1.5 | -11.5 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -105 | O 7.5 | 100 | 205 | | 70 | 5mph | | 1 | ARI | R | Merrill Kelly | | 3.0 | 7.1 | 0.4 | | 22.5 | 39.8 | 55.3 | | 1 | 21.1 | 1.4 | | -10.3 | -11.5 | 5.3 | | | | ● | | | | 1.00 |
| | -1.5 | -115 | U 7.5 | -120 | -230 | | | Out | | 9 | LAD | L | Julio Urias | | 5.6 | 9.4 | 0.3 | | 77.5 | 60.3 | 44.7 | | 3 | 64.8 | 3.3 | | 7.8 | 6.8 | -9.8 | | ● | ● | | | 0.43 | 0.87 | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -110 | O 7.0 | -110 | 185 | | 62 | 6mph | | 1 | COL | L | Austin Gomber | | 3.6 | 6.7 | 0.3 | | 43.8 | 62.7 | 50.3 | | 1 | 38.7 | 1.9 | | 8.7 | 10.3 | -2.1 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | 0.91 | |
| | -1.5 | -110 | U 7.0 | -110 | -238 | | | L-R | | 2 | SD | L | Blake Snell | | 4.0 | 6.7 | 0.4 | | 56.2 | 37.4 | 49.7 | | 1 | 42.7 | 2.2 | | -14.2 | -15.0 | -2.7 | | | | | | | | |
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