Sports Betting Truth Major League Baseball Model Outputs
Results
| Moneyline | | Run Line(1.5) | | Overs | | Unders | |
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| W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit |
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| 5-19-2021 | 4 | 7 | 36.4 | -3.62 | | 3 | 3 | 50.0 | 5.19 | -0.42 | | 6 | 7 | 46.2 | -2.47 | | 2 | 2 | 50.0 | 8.95 | -0.72 | | 4 | 4 | 50.0 | -0.39 | | 4 | 1 | 80.0 | 6.00 | 2.61 | | 3 | 2 | 60.0 | 0.73 | | 2 | 0 | 100.0 | 8.68 | 1.82 |
| Last 14 | 76 | 75 | 50.3 | -7.84 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.59 | 0.80 | | 82 | 75 | 52.2 | -1.57 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 21.28 | 1.45 | | 39 | 34 | 53.4 | 1.52 | | 37 | 31 | 54.4 | 0.53 | 2.61 | | 28 | 39 | 41.8 | -13.94 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.82 | 0.91 |
| Year to Date | 231 | 268 | 46.3 | -59.42 | | 71 | 64 | 52.6 | 7.67 | -0.34 | | 256 | 258 | 49.8 | -34.47 | | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 21.28 | 0.45 | | 162 | 135 | 54.5 | 11.40 | | 75 | 51 | 59.5 | 8.08 | 16.83 | | 93 | 104 | 47.2 | -20.60 | | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 21.23 | -1.00 |
The model is back up and running for the time being. I can't guarantee daily updates or that I will continue for the rest of the year but I just wanted to return to it for now.
Games Of 5-19-2021
| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 125 | O 9.0 | -105 | -125 | | 71 | 8mph | | 2 | CWS | R | Lucas Giolito | | 6.1 | 10.9 | 0.3 | | 60.0 | 48.2 | 63.9 | | 1 | 53.6 | 3.7 | | 4.4 | 3.7 | 12.7 | | ● | ● | ● | | 0.80 | -1 | -1 |
| | 1.5 | -145 | U 9.0 | -115 | 105 | | | R-L | | 1 | MIN | R | Matt Shoemaker | | 4.8 | 9.1 | 0.2 | | 40.0 | 51.9 | 36.1 | | 1 | 35.3 | 2.8 | | -8.8 | -7.3 | -17.4 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | 105 | O 7.5 | -115 | 230 | | 68 | 9mph | | 0 | COL | R | Chi Chi Gonzalez | | 3.1 | 6.2 | 0.4 | | 34.0 | 56.8 | 40.1 | | 0 | 30.4 | 1.5 | | 3.6 | 8.0 | -13.4 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
| | -1.5 | -125 | U 7.5 | -105 | -294 | | | Out | | 3 | SD | R | Joe Musgrove | | 4.2 | 7.9 | 0.4 | | 66.1 | 43.3 | 59.9 | | 1 | 53.5 | 2.4 | | -8.6 | -12.3 | 8.7 | | | | ● | | | | 0.95 |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 145 | O 8.5 | -110 | -120 | | 81 | 5mph | | 4 | SF | R | Kevin Gausman | | 4.4 | 7.8 | 0.2 | | 47.3 | 36.4 | 47.1 | | 1 | 40.1 | 2.2 | | -7.2 | -4.4 | -5.3 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | -172 | U 8.5 | -110 | 100 | | | In | | 0 | CIN | L | Wade Miley | | 4.3 | 7.9 | 0.3 | | 52.7 | 63.6 | 53.0 | | 0 | 43.8 | 2.3 | | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.6 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | -1 | 0.91 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -200 | O 8.0 | -110 | 100 | | 82 | 4mph | | 9 | TB | L | Ryan Yarbrough | | 3.3 | 6.9 | 0.2 | | 30.8 | 49.0 | 46.8 | | 3 | 24.7 | 1.5 | | -19.3 | -17.7 | -5.6 | | | | | | | | |
| | -1.5 | 170 | U 8.0 | -110 | -120 | | | Out | | 7 | BAL | L | John Means | | 4.9 | 10.1 | 0.3 | | 69.3 | 51.0 | 53.2 | | 6 | 59.0 | 2.9 | | 14.7 | 14.0 | 0.8 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | -1 | -1 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -196 | O 7.5 | -110 | 115 | | 83 | 5mph | | 3 | MIA | L | Trevor Rogers | | 4.7 | 10.0 | 0.3 | | 51.7 | 69.8 | 58.1 | | 1 | 42.8 | 2.5 | | 5.2 | 3.6 | 5.7 | | ● | ● | ● | | 1.15 | 0.51 | -1 |
| | -1.5 | 165 | U 7.5 | -110 | -135 | | | In | | 1 | PHI | R | Zach Eflin | | 4.3 | 8.0 | 0.4 | | 48.3 | 30.2 | 42.0 | | 0 | 40.9 | 2.4 | | -9.1 | -7.5 | -10.4 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -132 | O 7.5 | -120 | 160 | | 76 | 11mph | | 4 | NYM | L | David Peterson | | 4.1 | 9.0 | 0.3 | | 36.9 | 56.3 | 60.6 | | 1 | 33.7 | 2.2 | | -1.6 | -0.6 | 6.0 | | | | ● | | | | 0.83 |
| | -1.5 | 110 | U 7.5 | 100 | -192 | | | In | | 5 | ATL | R | Charlie Morton | | 5.0 | 8.2 | 0.2 | | 63.1 | 43.7 | 39.5 | | 3 | 49.8 | 2.7 | | -2.7 | -3.9 | -10.6 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -164 | O 9.5 | -115 | 110 | | 83 | 19mph | | 7 | BOS | R | Garrett Richards | | 7.2 | 12.4 | 0.3 | | 60.0 | 73.4 | 73.3 | | 6 | 58.4 | 4.5 | | 12.4 | 11.2 | 19.8 | | ● | ● | ● | | 1.10 | 0.61 | 0.87 |
| | -1.5 | 140 | U 9.5 | -105 | -132 | | | Out | | 3 | TOR | R | Ross Stripling | | 5.8 | 10.5 | 0.4 | | 40.0 | 26.7 | 26.8 | | 1 | 30.5 | 3.2 | | -16.9 | -15.0 | -24.5 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 100 | O 9.0 | -105 | -161 | | 73 | 14mph | | 4 | WSH | R | Max Scherzer | | 4.3 | 9.0 | 0.2 | | 55.9 | 43.3 | 35.0 | | 4 | 49.6 | 2.3 | | -5.8 | -6.8 | -16.2 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | -120 | U 9.0 | -115 | 135 | | | Out | | 3 | CHC | R | Jake Arrieta | | 3.5 | 6.5 | 0.4 | | 44.1 | 56.8 | 65.0 | | 2 | 33.9 | 1.7 | | 1.5 | 2.2 | 11.5 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | 0.83 | 0.87 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -105 | O 7.0 | -125 | 190 | | 76 | 12mph | | 5 | PIT | R | Trevor Cahill | | 2.8 | 7.2 | 0.3 | | 31.1 | 51.0 | 45.3 | | 2 | 24.5 | 1.3 | | -3.4 | -0.3 | -10.3 | | | | | | | | |
| | -1.5 | -115 | U 7.0 | 105 | -238 | | | R-L | | 8 | STL | R | Jack Flaherty | | 4.3 | 9.0 | 0.3 | | 68.9 | 49.1 | 54.8 | | 8 | 57.2 | 2.5 | | -1.5 | -4.4 | 6.0 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
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| Box | | -1.5 | -110 | O 9.0 | 100 | -179 | | 76 | 8mph | | 2 | NYY | R | Corey Kluber | | 4.5 | 8.9 | 0.2 | | 45.6 | 34.3 | 49.1 | | 0 | 37.1 | 2.5 | | -18.6 | -18.1 | -0.9 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | -110 | U 9.0 | -120 | 150 | | | R-L | | 0 | TEX | L | Hyeon-Jong Yang | | 4.8 | 9.5 | 0.3 | | 54.4 | 65.8 | 50.9 | | 0 | 49.4 | 3.1 | | 14.4 | 13.4 | -3.6 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
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| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -196 | O 8.0 | -110 | 100 | | 71 | 10mph | | 3 | CLE | R | Aaron Civale | | 4.6 | 8.0 | 0.3 | | 49.4 | 68.5 | 53.3 | | 2 | 41.2 | 2.5 | | -0.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | | | ● | ● | | | 0.51 | -1 |
| | -1.5 | 165 | U 8.0 | -110 | -120 | | | Out | | 2 | LAA | R | Shohei Ohtani | | 4.3 | 8.9 | 0.4 | | 50.6 | 31.6 | 46.7 | | 2 | 42.1 | 2.5 | | -3.9 | -6.2 | -5.7 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | -110 | O 7.5 | 100 | -192 | | 69 | 9mph | | 4 | MIL | R | Corbin Burnes | | 6.0 | 10.7 | 0.2 | | 70.3 | 60.1 | 62.7 | | 2 | 66.4 | 3.5 | | 4.5 | 7.7 | 12.7 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | -1 | 1.00 |
| | 1.5 | -110 | U 7.5 | -120 | 160 | | | R-L | | 6 | KC | R | Brad Keller | | 3.5 | 7.9 | 0.3 | | 29.7 | 39.9 | 37.3 | | 2 | 20.8 | 1.6 | | -8.8 | -12.5 | -17.2 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 140 | O 8.5 | -110 | -120 | | 58 | 16mph | | 8 | HOU | R | Zack Greinke | | 5.6 | 10.8 | 0.2 | | 52.8 | 42.4 | 63.4 | | 2 | 48.0 | 3.2 | | -1.8 | 0.7 | 11.0 | | | ● | ● | | | 1.40 | 0.91 |
| | 1.5 | -164 | U 8.5 | -110 | 100 | | | Out | | 1 | OAK | R | Frankie Montas | | 4.9 | 9.3 | 0.3 | | 47.3 | 57.7 | 36.7 | | 1 | 40.3 | 2.9 | | -2.8 | -4.5 | -15.7 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -164 | O 8.0 | -105 | 130 | | 56 | 6mph | | 6 | DET | L | Tarik Skubal | | 4.6 | 8.6 | 0.4 | | 34.1 | 49.6 | 68.8 | | 5 | 28.4 | 2.5 | | -9.4 | -12.5 | 17.5 | | | | ● | | | | 0.00 |
| | -1.5 | 140 | U 8.0 | -115 | -149 | | | In | | 2 | SEA | R | Logan Gilbert | | 6.2 | 8.8 | 0.3 | | 66.0 | 50.4 | 31.3 | | 2 | 60.4 | 4.0 | | 6.1 | 8.7 | -22.2 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | 130 | O 7.5 | -115 | 260 | | 67 | 7mph | | 2 | ARI | R | Merrill Kelly | | 2.6 | 7.1 | 0.3 | | 15.4 | 31.1 | 56.1 | | 2 | 14.6 | 1.3 | | -12.4 | -12.4 | 2.6 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
| | -1.5 | -150 | U 7.5 | -105 | -300 | | | Out | | 4 | LAD | L | Clayton Kershaw | | 6.1 | 9.8 | 0.3 | | 84.6 | 69.0 | 43.9 | | 1 | 72.8 | 3.8 | | 9.6 | 9.0 | -7.3 | | ● | ● | | | 0.33 | 0.67 | |
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