Sports Betting Truth Major League Baseball Model Outputs
Results
| Moneyline | | Run Line(1.5) | | Overs | | Unders | |
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| W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit |
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| 5-20-2021 | 5 | 4 | 55.6 | 1.21 | | 4 | 0 | 100.0 | 5.04 | 4.26 | | 4 | 6 | 40.0 | -2.57 | | 4 | 2 | 66.7 | 3.39 | 1.43 | | 7 | 2 | 77.8 | 4.35 | | 5 | 0 | 100.0 | 10.50 | 4.61 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 0.87 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 0.36 | 0.87 |
| Last 14 | 76 | 75 | 50.3 | -7.84 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.59 | 0.80 | | 82 | 75 | 52.2 | -1.57 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 21.28 | 1.45 | | 39 | 34 | 53.4 | 1.52 | | 37 | 31 | 54.4 | 0.53 | 2.61 | | 28 | 39 | 41.8 | -13.94 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.82 | 0.91 |
| Year to Date | 231 | 268 | 46.3 | -59.42 | | 71 | 64 | 52.6 | 7.67 | -0.34 | | 256 | 258 | 49.8 | -34.47 | | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 21.28 | 0.45 | | 162 | 135 | 54.5 | 11.40 | | 75 | 51 | 59.5 | 8.08 | 16.83 | | 93 | 104 | 47.2 | -20.60 | | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 21.23 | -1.00 |
The model is back up and running for the time being. I can't guarantee daily updates or that I will continue for the rest of the year but I just wanted to return to it for now.
Games Of 5-20-2021
| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
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| Box | | -1.5 | -110 | O 9.0 | -105 | -161 | | 83 | 5mph | | 10 | TB | L | Rich Hill | | 5.9 | 10.0 | 0.1 | | 55.2 | 45.3 | 62.7 | | 4 | 51.7 | 3.6 | | -6.5 | -7.1 | 11.5 | | | | ● | | | | 0.95 |
| | 1.5 | -110 | U 9.0 | -115 | 135 | | | R-L | | 1 | BAL | R | Dean Kremer | | 5.0 | 9.3 | 0.2 | | 44.9 | 54.7 | 37.3 | | 1 | 36.1 | 3.0 | | 2.3 | 2.3 | -16.2 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -161 | O 8.5 | -105 | 130 | | 81 | 5mph | | 19 | SF | R | Johnny Cueto | | 4.7 | 7.3 | 0.2 | | 35.3 | 51.2 | 65.0 | | 14 | 31.8 | 2.5 | | -8.2 | -10.5 | 13.7 | | | | ● | | | | 0.95 |
| | -1.5 | 135 | U 8.5 | -115 | -149 | | | R-L | | 4 | CIN | R | Tyler Mahle | | 5.9 | 10.0 | 0.2 | | 64.8 | 48.9 | 35.1 | | 1 | 55.4 | 3.6 | | 4.9 | 6.3 | -18.4 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 140 | O 7.5 | -115 | -115 | | 73 | 5mph | | 2 | NYY | R | Domingo German | | 4.2 | 9.3 | 0.2 | | 46.8 | 34.9 | 55.3 | | 0 | 36.5 | 2.3 | | -6.7 | -6.8 | 1.8 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
| | 1.5 | -164 | U 7.5 | -105 | -105 | | | Out | | 0 | TEX | R | Dane Dunning | | 4.4 | 8.8 | 0.2 | | 53.3 | 65.2 | 44.7 | | 0 | 48.3 | 2.7 | | 2.0 | 3.0 | -6.5 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -172 | O 10.5 | -105 | 105 | | 77 | 13mph | | 2 | WSH | R | Joe Ross | | 5.2 | 9.7 | 0.2 | | 47.0 | 64.3 | 46.2 | | 2 | 46.1 | 3.3 | | -1.8 | 1.0 | -5.1 | | | ● | | | | -1 | |
| | -1.5 | 145 | U 10.5 | -115 | -125 | | | Out | | 5 | CHC | R | Trevor Williams | | 5.2 | 8.6 | 0.3 | | 53.1 | 35.8 | 53.9 | | 5 | 40.5 | 3.1 | | -2.5 | -5.1 | 0.4 | | | | ● | | | | 0.87 |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 130 | O 8.5 | -115 | -120 | | 64 | 13mph | | 8 | HOU | R | Luis Garcia | | 5.0 | 10.5 | 0.1 | | 53.8 | 40.9 | 54.0 | | 5 | 45.7 | 2.7 | | -0.7 | -2.6 | 0.5 | | | | ● | | | | 0.87 |
| | 1.5 | -149 | U 8.5 | -105 | 100 | | | Out | | 4 | OAK | L | Cole Irvin | | 4.3 | 7.3 | 0.3 | | 46.2 | 59.1 | 46.1 | | 2 | 39.2 | 2.4 | | -3.8 | -0.7 | -5.2 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 150 | O 6.0 | -115 | -120 | | 71 | 10mph | | 1 | MIN | L | Lewis Thorpe | | 4.7 | 8.5 | 0.2 | | 55.7 | 43.1 | 69.9 | | 1 | 49.6 | 3.4 | | 1.1 | 3.0 | 16.4 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | -1 | 0.87 |
| | 1.5 | -170 | U 6.0 | -105 | 110 | | | Out | | 7 | LAA | R | Alex Cobb | | 3.9 | 7.3 | 0.3 | | 44.4 | 57.0 | 30.1 | | 7 | 38.5 | 2.9 | | -3.3 | -6.0 | -21.1 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -196 | O 8.0 | -115 | -105 | | 75 | 9mph | | 6 | MIA | R | Sandy Alcantara | | 4.5 | 7.7 | 0.3 | | 52.8 | 70.0 | 52.0 | | 3 | 44.4 | 2.4 | | 1.5 | 3.8 | -1.5 | | ● | ● | | | 0.95 | 0.51 | |
| | -1.5 | 165 | U 8.0 | -105 | -115 | | | Out | | 0 | PHI | R | Vince Velasquez | | 4.1 | 7.8 | 0.4 | | 47.3 | 30.0 | 48.0 | | 0 | 38.9 | 2.2 | | -6.2 | -7.7 | -3.2 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -125 | O 9.0 | 100 | 170 | | 79 | 10mph | | 6 | PIT | R | Wil Crowe | | 5.1 | 9.4 | 0.3 | | 42.5 | 59.0 | 60.9 | | 2 | 37.0 | 2.8 | | 5.4 | 3.4 | 10.9 | | ● | ● | ● | | 1.70 | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| | -1.5 | 105 | U 9.0 | -120 | -200 | | | In | | 4 | ATL | L | Drew Smyly | | 5.6 | 8.9 | 0.2 | | 57.6 | 41.1 | 39.1 | | 3 | 51.2 | 3.5 | | -9.1 | -7.7 | -15.4 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -149 | O 9.5 | -115 | 120 | | 82 | 19mph | | 8 | BOS | R | Nick Pivetta | | 5.7 | 10.7 | 0.3 | | 54.7 | 69.3 | 55.2 | | 5 | 47.1 | 3.1 | | 9.2 | 9.4 | 1.7 | | ● | ● | ● | | 1.20 | 0.67 | 0.87 |
| | -1.5 | 130 | U 9.5 | -105 | -141 | | | Out | | 7 | TOR | L | Steven Matz | | 5.1 | 9.0 | 0.5 | | 45.4 | 30.8 | 44.9 | | 5 | 39.2 | 2.7 | | -13.2 | -12.7 | -6.4 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 145 | O 6.0 | -120 | -125 | | 70 | 12mph | | 6 | MIN | R | Jose Berrios | | 4.6 | 7.4 | 0.2 | | 60.6 | 48.2 | 65.1 | | 5 | 54.9 | 3.3 | | 5.0 | 7.3 | 10.5 | | ● | ● | ● | | 0.80 | 1.45 | 0.83 |
| | 1.5 | -172 | U 6.0 | 100 | 105 | | | Out | | 3 | LAA | R | Griffin Canning | | 3.3 | 6.8 | 0.3 | | 39.4 | 51.9 | 35.0 | | 3 | 32.8 | 2.4 | | -9.4 | -11.4 | -15.1 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -126 | O 8.5 | -110 | 162 | | 67 | 7mph | | 2 | ARI | R | Merrill Kelly | | 3.8 | 8.0 | 0.4 | | 23.9 | 40.2 | 61.1 | | 0 | 25.0 | 2.0 | | -14.3 | -15.6 | 8.7 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
| | -1.5 | 108 | U 8.5 | -110 | -179 | | | Out | | 3 | LAD | R | Edwin Uceta | | 6.3 | 10.1 | 0.3 | | 76.1 | 59.8 | 39.0 | | 2 | 63.6 | 3.8 | | 11.9 | 11.7 | -13.4 | | ● | ● | | | 0.56 | -1 | |
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