Sports Betting Truth Major League Baseball Model Outputs
Results
| Moneyline | | Run Line(1.5) | | Overs | | Unders | |
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| W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit |
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| 5-5-2021 | 5 | 8 | 38.5 | -2.70 | | 4 | 3 | 57.1 | 5.74 | 1.10 | | 6 | 6 | 50.0 | -1.17 | | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 9.62 | -1.00 | | 3 | 5 | 37.5 | -2.31 | | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 14.51 | -0.13 | | 2 | 2 | 50.0 | -0.36 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 18.53 | 0.77 |
| Last 14 | 76 | 75 | 50.3 | -7.84 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.59 | 0.80 | | 82 | 75 | 52.2 | -1.57 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 21.28 | 1.45 | | 39 | 34 | 53.4 | 1.52 | | 37 | 31 | 54.4 | 0.53 | 2.61 | | 28 | 39 | 41.8 | -13.94 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.82 | 0.91 |
| Year to Date | 231 | 268 | 46.3 | -59.42 | | 71 | 64 | 52.6 | 7.67 | -0.34 | | 256 | 258 | 49.8 | -34.47 | | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 21.28 | 0.45 | | 162 | 135 | 54.5 | 11.40 | | 75 | 51 | 59.5 | 8.08 | 16.83 | | 93 | 104 | 47.2 | -20.60 | | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 21.23 | -1.00 |
The model is back up and running for the time being. I can't guarantee daily updates or that I will continue for the rest of the year but I just wanted to return to it for now.
Games Of 5-5-2021
| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -180 | O 8.0 | 100 | 120 | | 57 | 9mph | | 0 | CWS | L | Dallas Keuchel | | 4.1 | 8.5 | 0.4 | | 47.4 | 65.8 | 45.7 | | 0 | 39.4 | 2.0 | | 1.9 | 1.5 | -4.3 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | 0.56 | |
| | -1.5 | 160 | U 8.0 | -120 | -130 | | | Out | | 1 | CIN | R | Sonny Gray | | 4.0 | 8.1 | 0.3 | | 52.6 | 34.2 | 54.3 | | 0 | 41.9 | 2.1 | | -3.9 | -4.3 | -0.3 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -189 | O 10.0 | -110 | 100 | | 62 | 9mph | | 5 | SF | R | Logan Webb | | 4.6 | 8.4 | 0.2 | | 35.9 | 52.9 | 49.8 | | 2 | 27.2 | 2.2 | | -14.2 | -12.5 | -2.6 | | | | | | | | |
| | -1.5 | 160 | U 10.0 | -110 | -110 | | | In | | 6 | COL | R | Jon Gray | | 5.9 | 10.4 | 0.4 | | 64.2 | 47.2 | 50.2 | | 6 | 60.2 | 3.7 | | 11.8 | 8.7 | -2.2 | | ● | ● | | | 0.91 | -1 | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -208 | O 7.5 | 100 | 101 | | 63 | 6mph | | 6 | BAL | L | John Means | | 4.9 | 9.4 | 0.3 | | 58.1 | 73.5 | 57.3 | | 2 | 47.5 | 2.6 | | 8.3 | 5.9 | 7.3 | | ● | ● | ● | | 1.01 | 0.48 | -1 |
| | -1.5 | 175 | U 7.5 | -120 | -111 | | | In | | 0 | SEA | L | Yusei Kikuchi | | 3.9 | 7.2 | 0.3 | | 41.9 | 26.6 | 42.7 | | 0 | 35.8 | 2.1 | | -10.7 | -9.8 | -11.8 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -250 | O 6.0 | 110 | -105 | | 68 | 5mph | | 1 | NYM | R | Marcus Stroman | | 2.6 | 6.6 | 0.3 | | 55.5 | 81.1 | 25.0 | | 1 | 44.7 | 1.7 | | 4.2 | 9.6 | -22.7 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
| | -1.5 | 220 | U 6.0 | -130 | -105 | | | L-R | | 4 | STL | L | Kwang Hyun Kim | | 1.9 | 5.4 | 0.3 | | 44.6 | 19.0 | 75.1 | | 4 | 29.9 | 1.2 | | -6.7 | -12.3 | 18.5 | | | | ● | | | | 0.77 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -169 | O 7.0 | -120 | 130 | | 72 | 0mph | | 0 | ARI | R | Luke Weaver | | 3.1 | 7.8 | 0.3 | | 35.8 | 55.1 | 49.5 | | 0 | 28.1 | 1.5 | | -7.7 | -7.7 | -5.1 | | | | | | | | |
| | -1.5 | 145 | U 7.0 | 100 | -141 | | | Unknown | | 8 | MIA | R | Pablo Lopez | | 4.3 | 8.0 | 0.4 | | 64.3 | 44.9 | 50.6 | | 6 | 54.3 | 2.6 | | 5.7 | 4.1 | 0.5 | | ● | ● | ● | | 0.71 | 1.45 | -1 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -161 | O 9.5 | -105 | 125 | | 62 | 10mph | | 3 | HOU | R | Luis Garcia | | 5.0 | 9.6 | 0.1 | | 50.4 | 68.8 | 44.5 | | 3 | 47.7 | 2.7 | | 6.0 | 7.1 | -6.8 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
| | -1.5 | 140 | U 9.5 | -115 | -135 | | | Out | | 6 | NYY | L | Jordan Montgomery | | 4.6 | 7.8 | 0.3 | | 49.6 | 31.2 | 55.6 | | 3 | 37.0 | 2.3 | | -7.8 | -10.5 | 2.1 | | | | ● | | | | 0.87 |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 140 | O 9.0 | -105 | -125 | | 67 | 15mph | | 5 | ATL | L | Max Fried | | 5.5 | 8.9 | 0.2 | | 39.4 | 29.5 | 68.6 | | 5 | 34.1 | 2.9 | | -16.2 | -12.2 | 17.4 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
| | 1.5 | -161 | U 9.0 | -115 | 115 | | | L-R | | 3 | WSH | R | Erick Fedde | | 6.3 | 10.9 | 0.3 | | 60.6 | 70.5 | 31.4 | | 1 | 54.3 | 3.9 | | 14.1 | 8.8 | -22.1 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 120 | O 7.5 | -105 | -130 | | 65 | 13mph | | 4 | MIL | R | Freddy Peralta | | 4.4 | 8.1 | 0.3 | | 53.8 | 40.5 | 52.2 | | 4 | 47.3 | 2.4 | | -2.7 | -5.0 | 0.9 | | | | ● | | | | 0.95 |
| | 1.5 | -141 | U 7.5 | -115 | 120 | | | In | | 5 | PHI | R | Chase Anderson | | 3.9 | 6.7 | 0.4 | | 46.2 | 59.6 | 47.9 | | 5 | 35.9 | 2.0 | | 0.7 | 1.0 | -5.6 | | ● | ● | | | 1.20 | 0.71 | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -125 | O 9.0 | -115 | 162 | | 49 | 6mph | | 6 | DET | R | Casey Mize | | 5.3 | 9.7 | 0.3 | | 36.5 | 52.7 | 68.0 | | 1 | 37.4 | 3.2 | | -1.7 | -2.9 | 14.5 | | | | ● | | | | 0.87 |
| | -1.5 | 105 | U 9.0 | -105 | -179 | | | In | | 5 | BOS | L | Martin Perez | | 6.4 | 10.4 | 0.3 | | 63.5 | 47.4 | 32.0 | | 1 | 52.3 | 3.9 | | -0.7 | -1.4 | -19.2 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -141 | O 8.5 | -110 | 147 | | 49 | 5mph | | 3 | TEX | L | Hyeon-Jong Yang | | 3.9 | 8.5 | 0.2 | | 36.2 | 55.7 | 50.1 | | 1 | 32.2 | 2.0 | | -4.3 | -2.9 | -2.3 | | | | | | | | |
| | -1.5 | 120 | U 8.5 | -110 | -156 | | | L-R | | 1 | MIN | L | Lewis Thorpe | | 4.9 | 9.2 | 0.2 | | 63.8 | 44.4 | 50.0 | | 1 | 52.9 | 2.8 | | 2.9 | -1.1 | -2.4 | | ● | | | | -1 | | |
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| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 100 | O 7.5 | -110 | -156 | | 50 | 7mph | | 5 | LAD | R | Walker Buehler | | 3.7 | 6.5 | 0.3 | | 53.7 | 38.8 | 38.5 | | 2 | 39.7 | 1.7 | | -7.2 | -11.2 | -13.9 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | -120 | U 7.5 | -110 | 147 | | | R-L | | 6 | CHC | R | Adbert Alzolay | | 3.3 | 6.3 | 0.3 | | 46.3 | 61.2 | 61.6 | | 2 | 39.7 | 1.7 | | 5.8 | 6.7 | 9.2 | | ● | ● | ● | | 1.47 | 0.83 | -1 |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 105 | O 7.0 | -115 | -156 | | 66 | 6mph | | 5 | CLE | R | Shane Bieber | | 4.2 | 8.2 | 0.3 | | 54.8 | 40.5 | 52.8 | | 0 | 44.3 | 2.1 | | -6.2 | -8.3 | -0.7 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | -125 | U 7.0 | -105 | 147 | | | Out | | 4 | KC | R | Brady Singer | | 3.6 | 7.3 | 0.3 | | 45.3 | 59.5 | 47.2 | | 4 | 38.5 | 1.9 | | 4.8 | 3.9 | -4.0 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | 0.80 | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -115 | O 6.5 | -115 | 215 | | 67 | 6mph | | 2 | PIT | R | JT Brubaker | | 3.0 | 7.0 | 0.3 | | 30.6 | 50.4 | 57.5 | | 0 | 24.9 | 1.5 | | -1.2 | -3.1 | 4.0 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
| | -1.5 | -105 | U 6.5 | -105 | -244 | | | L-R | | 4 | SD | R | Yu Darvish | | 4.6 | 8.6 | 0.4 | | 69.5 | 49.6 | 42.6 | | 2 | 58.5 | 2.8 | | -1.5 | -1.6 | -8.7 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -256 | O 6.0 | 105 | -105 | | 66 | 3mph | | 0 | NYM | R | Jordan Yamamoto | | 2.8 | 6.1 | 0.2 | | 35.3 | 58.4 | 50.1 | | 0 | 29.8 | 1.9 | | -16.0 | -13.5 | 1.3 | | | | ● | | | | 0.00 |
| | -1.5 | 205 | U 6.0 | -125 | -105 | | | In | | 0 | STL | R | Johan Oviedo | | 3.7 | 6.9 | 0.2 | | 64.8 | 41.6 | 50.0 | | 0 | 54.9 | 2.9 | | 13.5 | 8.8 | -5.6 | | ● | ● | | | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -179 | O 8.5 | -110 | 110 | | 71 | 8mph | | 3 | TB | L | Ryan Yarbrough | | 5.0 | 8.7 | 0.2 | | 45.5 | 62.8 | 60.2 | | 0 | 44.5 | 2.8 | | -2.1 | -1.4 | 7.8 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
| | -1.5 | 155 | U 8.5 | -110 | -120 | | | Out | | 1 | LAA | R | Shohei Ohtani | | 5.1 | 10.1 | 0.4 | | 54.5 | 37.2 | 39.9 | | 1 | 42.6 | 2.8 | | 0.0 | -2.0 | -12.5 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -189 | O 8.0 | -115 | 115 | | 56 | 9mph | | 9 | TOR | L | Robbie Ray | | 4.2 | 8.2 | 0.4 | | 40.1 | 56.8 | 55.1 | | 2 | 35.2 | 2.3 | | -6.4 | -8.6 | 1.6 | | | | ● | | | | 0.87 |
| | -1.5 | 160 | U 8.0 | -105 | -125 | | | Out | | 4 | OAK | R | Chris Bassitt | | 4.9 | 7.3 | 0.2 | | 59.9 | 43.2 | 44.9 | | 2 | 52.6 | 3.1 | | 4.3 | 4.7 | -6.3 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
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