Sports Betting Truth Major League Baseball Model Outputs
Results
| Moneyline | | Run Line(1.5) | | Overs | | Unders | |
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| W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit |
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| 5-7-2021 | 4 | 6 | 40.0 | -2.26 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 13.71 | 1.25 | | 7 | 5 | 58.3 | 0.12 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 12.74 | 0.71 | | 6 | 2 | 75.0 | 3.23 | | 4 | 0 | 100.0 | 9.81 | 3.49 | | 2 | 1 | 66.7 | 0.79 | | 2 | 0 | 100.0 | 3.90 | 1.79 |
| Last 14 | 76 | 75 | 50.3 | -7.84 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.59 | 0.80 | | 82 | 75 | 52.2 | -1.57 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 21.28 | 1.45 | | 39 | 34 | 53.4 | 1.52 | | 37 | 31 | 54.4 | 0.53 | 2.61 | | 28 | 39 | 41.8 | -13.94 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.82 | 0.91 |
| Year to Date | 231 | 268 | 46.3 | -59.42 | | 71 | 64 | 52.6 | 7.67 | -0.34 | | 256 | 258 | 49.8 | -34.47 | | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 21.28 | 0.45 | | 162 | 135 | 54.5 | 11.40 | | 75 | 51 | 59.5 | 8.08 | 16.83 | | 93 | 104 | 47.2 | -20.60 | | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 21.23 | -1.00 |
The model is back up and running for the time being. I can't guarantee daily updates or that I will continue for the rest of the year but I just wanted to return to it for now.
Games Of 5-7-2021
| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -161 | O 7.5 | -110 | 120 | | 54 | 11mph | | 2 | PIT | R | Trevor Cahill | | 4.1 | 8.5 | 0.3 | | 48.7 | 66.5 | 50.5 | | 0 | 41.3 | 2.3 | | 3.2 | 4.8 | -1.9 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | 0.62 | |
| | -1.5 | 140 | U 7.5 | -110 | -145 | | | In | | 3 | CHC | R | Zach Davies | | 4.0 | 7.4 | 0.3 | | 51.3 | 33.5 | 49.5 | | 3 | 42.1 | 2.3 | | -7.9 | -8.2 | -2.9 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 100 | O 8.5 | -110 | -164 | | 55 | 10mph | | 6 | BOS | L | Eduardo Rodriguez | | 5.3 | 9.8 | 0.3 | | 55.9 | 43.3 | 56.1 | | 4 | 46.3 | 3.1 | | -6.3 | -6.8 | 3.7 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
| | 1.5 | -120 | U 8.5 | -110 | 140 | | | L-R | | 2 | BAL | R | Matt Harvey | | 4.4 | 8.6 | 0.3 | | 44.2 | 56.8 | 43.9 | | 1 | 39.0 | 2.7 | | 2.5 | 2.2 | -8.5 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -125 | O 8.5 | -115 | 150 | | 56 | 11mph | | 11 | WSH | L | Patrick Corbin | | 3.8 | 8.1 | 0.3 | | 22.9 | 39.5 | 63.3 | | 3 | 18.7 | 2.1 | | -17.2 | -16.1 | 9.8 | | | | ● | | | | 0.87 |
| | -1.5 | 105 | U 8.5 | -105 | -185 | | | In | | 4 | NYY | R | Jameson Taillon | | 6.6 | 9.8 | 0.2 | | 77.2 | 60.5 | 36.7 | | 2 | 71.7 | 4.6 | | 12.2 | 11.7 | -14.5 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -169 | O 8.0 | -115 | 120 | | 53 | 5mph | | 3 | CIN | L | Wade Miley | | 4.3 | 8.5 | 0.3 | | 56.6 | 73.4 | 42.5 | | 0 | 48.7 | 2.3 | | 11.1 | 10.5 | -11.0 | | ● | ● | | | 1.20 | 0.59 | |
| | -1.5 | 145 | U 8.0 | -105 | -145 | | | Out | | 0 | CLE | R | Zach Plesac | | 3.4 | 7.0 | 0.4 | | 43.4 | 26.7 | 57.6 | | 0 | 32.9 | 1.7 | | -15.8 | -14.2 | 6.3 | | | | ● | | | | 0.95 |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 110 | O 8.5 | -120 | -149 | | 51 | 8mph | | 7 | MIN | R | Matt Shoemaker | | 7.1 | 10.5 | 0.2 | | 66.4 | 55.7 | 75.2 | | 2 | 61.7 | 4.5 | | 6.6 | 8.0 | 20.7 | | ● | ● | ● | | 0.67 | 1.10 | 0.83 |
| | 1.5 | -130 | U 8.5 | 100 | 125 | | | Out | | 3 | DET | L | Tarik Skubal | | 4.8 | 8.6 | 0.4 | | 33.6 | 44.4 | 24.8 | | 0 | 28.4 | 3.0 | | -10.8 | -12.2 | -25.2 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -208 | O 7.0 | -110 | 105 | | 55 | 11mph | | 4 | ARI | R | Zac Gallen | | 4.1 | 7.2 | 0.3 | | 49.3 | 68.3 | 55.3 | | 4 | 44.5 | 2.2 | | 0.5 | 0.7 | 2.9 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | 0.48 | 0.91 |
| | -1.5 | 175 | U 7.0 | -110 | -130 | | | R-L | | 5 | NYM | L | David Peterson | | 3.9 | 7.5 | 0.4 | | 50.8 | 31.8 | 44.7 | | 1 | 38.2 | 2.0 | | -5.8 | -4.6 | -7.7 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -179 | O 6.5 | -115 | 120 | | 72 | 0mph | | 1 | MIL | L | Brent Suter | | 3.3 | 7.6 | 0.3 | | 42.7 | 63.7 | 51.9 | | 1 | 32.5 | 1.6 | | -2.8 | -0.5 | -1.6 | | | | | | | | |
| | -1.5 | 155 | U 6.5 | -105 | -145 | | | Unknown | | 6 | MIA | L | Trevor Rogers | | 3.9 | 8.0 | 0.3 | | 57.3 | 36.3 | 48.2 | | 6 | 49.6 | 2.2 | | -1.9 | -2.9 | -3.1 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -161 | O 7.5 | -115 | 135 | | 64 | 9mph | | 12 | PHI | R | Zach Eflin | | 3.7 | 8.3 | 0.4 | | 42.5 | 63.4 | 47.5 | | 7 | 33.6 | 1.9 | | -0.1 | 1.7 | -6.0 | | | ● | | | | 0.62 | |
| | -1.5 | 140 | U 7.5 | -105 | -161 | | | Out | | 2 | ATL | R | Charlie Morton | | 4.1 | 9.1 | 0.2 | | 57.6 | 36.7 | 52.5 | | 2 | 47.4 | 2.3 | | -4.1 | -5.0 | 1.3 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -200 | O 8.5 | -105 | 100 | | 83 | 13mph | | 5 | SEA | R | Chris Flexen | | 5.3 | 10.3 | 0.3 | | 46.1 | 63.1 | 66.3 | | 4 | 43.3 | 3.1 | | -3.9 | -3.6 | 15.1 | | | | ● | | | | 0.95 |
| | -1.5 | 170 | U 8.5 | -115 | -120 | | | Out | | 4 | TEX | R | Mike Foltynewicz | | 5.5 | 10.7 | 0.2 | | 54.0 | 37.0 | 33.7 | | 4 | 44.0 | 3.2 | | -0.6 | -0.1 | -19.8 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 100 | O 8.0 | -120 | -161 | | 65 | 6mph | | 3 | CWS | L | Carlos Rodon | | 5.3 | 10.7 | 0.3 | | 63.6 | 51.6 | 54.3 | | 1 | 54.5 | 2.9 | | 1.9 | 1.5 | -0.2 | | ● | ● | | | 0.62 | 1.00 | |
| | 1.5 | -120 | U 8.0 | 100 | 135 | | | Out | | 0 | KC | R | Brad Keller | | 3.7 | 7.4 | 0.3 | | 36.4 | 48.5 | 45.7 | | 0 | 29.7 | 1.9 | | -6.2 | -6.1 | -4.3 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -161 | O 9.0 | -120 | 120 | | 82 | 9mph | | 4 | TOR | R | Ross Stripling | | 5.5 | 9.8 | 0.5 | | 43.9 | 58.9 | 66.9 | | 2 | 38.7 | 3.1 | | -1.6 | -2.8 | 12.4 | | | | ● | | | | 0.83 |
| | -1.5 | 140 | U 9.0 | 100 | -145 | | | Out | | 10 | HOU | R | Jose Urquidy | | 5.9 | 9.9 | 0.2 | | 56.1 | 41.2 | 33.1 | | 5 | 50.4 | 3.7 | | -3.1 | -0.5 | -16.9 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -115 | O 7.5 | 100 | 170 | | 69 | 9mph | | 0 | COL | L | Austin Gomber | | 3.2 | 6.6 | 0.3 | | 37.7 | 58.7 | 41.6 | | 0 | 31.5 | 1.7 | | 0.6 | 5.2 | -8.5 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
| | -1.5 | -105 | U 7.5 | -120 | -200 | | | L-R | | 5 | STL | R | Jack Flaherty | | 4.0 | 7.1 | 0.2 | | 62.4 | 41.4 | 58.5 | | 5 | 50.7 | 2.4 | | -4.3 | -9.9 | 3.9 | | | | ● | | | | 0.83 |
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| Box | | -1.5 | -105 | O 8.5 | -120 | -161 | | 65 | 9mph | | 2 | LAD | L | Julio Urias | | 6.0 | 9.3 | 0.3 | | 73.1 | 61.7 | 53.2 | | 1 | 68.0 | 3.6 | | 11.4 | 10.4 | -1.4 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
| | 1.5 | -115 | U 8.5 | 100 | 135 | | | Out | | 9 | LAA | R | Griffin Canning | | 3.3 | 7.7 | 0.4 | | 27.0 | 38.4 | 46.9 | | 5 | 19.5 | 1.5 | | -15.6 | -15.1 | -3.1 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -175 | O 7.5 | -105 | 120 | | 61 | 8mph | | 1 | TB | L | Rich Hill | | 4.3 | 9.5 | 0.2 | | 41.0 | 58.0 | 60.7 | | 0 | 34.6 | 2.4 | | -4.5 | -5.7 | 9.5 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
| | -1.5 | 150 | U 7.5 | -115 | -145 | | | Out | | 2 | OAK | L | Sean Manaea | | 5.0 | 8.6 | 0.2 | | 59.1 | 42.1 | 39.3 | | 0 | 51.3 | 3.1 | | -0.1 | 2.0 | -14.2 | | | ● | | | | -1 | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 120 | O 7.0 | -120 | -149 | | 58 | 13mph | | 4 | SD | L | Blake Snell | | 3.7 | 8.4 | 0.4 | | 41.9 | 28.8 | 55.6 | | 0 | 32.3 | 1.8 | | -18.0 | -16.7 | 1.0 | | | | ● | | | | 0.83 |
| | 1.5 | -141 | U 7.0 | 100 | 125 | | | Out | | 5 | SF | R | Anthony DeSclafani | | 4.3 | 8.1 | 0.3 | | 58.2 | 71.3 | 44.5 | | 4 | 52.2 | 2.6 | | 13.7 | 12.7 | -5.6 | | ● | ● | | | 1.25 | 0.71 | |
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