Sports Betting Truth Major League Baseball Model Outputs
Results
| Moneyline | | Run Line(1.5) | | Overs | | Unders | |
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| W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit |
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| 5-8-2021 | 5 | 6 | 45.5 | -1.05 | | 3 | 0 | 100.0 | 8.46 | 3.37 | | 6 | 9 | 40.0 | -4.13 | | 2 | 0 | 100.0 | 9.65 | 1.77 | | 4 | 0 | 100.0 | 3.73 | | 4 | 0 | 100.0 | 1.04 | 3.73 | | 2 | 5 | 28.6 | -3.22 | | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 21.23 | -1.00 |
| Last 14 | 76 | 75 | 50.3 | -7.84 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.59 | 0.80 | | 82 | 75 | 52.2 | -1.57 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 21.28 | 1.45 | | 39 | 34 | 53.4 | 1.52 | | 37 | 31 | 54.4 | 0.53 | 2.61 | | 28 | 39 | 41.8 | -13.94 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.82 | 0.91 |
| Year to Date | 231 | 268 | 46.3 | -59.42 | | 71 | 64 | 52.6 | 7.67 | -0.34 | | 256 | 258 | 49.8 | -34.47 | | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 21.28 | 0.45 | | 162 | 135 | 54.5 | 11.40 | | 75 | 51 | 59.5 | 8.08 | 16.83 | | 93 | 104 | 47.2 | -20.60 | | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 21.23 | -1.00 |
The model is back up and running for the time being. I can't guarantee daily updates or that I will continue for the rest of the year but I just wanted to return to it for now.
Games Of 5-8-2021
| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -189 | O 8.0 | -105 | 105 | | 51 | 8mph | | 3 | WSH | R | Max Scherzer | | 4.0 | 7.8 | 0.3 | | 47.2 | 65.8 | 44.3 | | 1 | 43.5 | 2.3 | | -1.6 | 0.4 | -6.9 | | | ● | | | | 0.53 | |
| | -1.5 | 160 | U 8.0 | -115 | -130 | | | R-L | | 4 | NYY | R | Corey Kluber | | 4.0 | 6.7 | 0.3 | | 52.8 | 34.2 | 55.7 | | 1 | 41.2 | 2.1 | | -3.7 | -4.3 | 2.2 | | | | ● | | | | 0.87 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -130 | O 7.5 | -115 | 155 | | 51 | 12mph | | 8 | COL | R | Chi Chi Gonzalez | | 2.8 | 6.7 | 0.3 | | 43.8 | 67.0 | 27.6 | | 5 | 34.6 | 1.4 | | 4.6 | 10.4 | -25.9 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | 0.77 | |
| | -1.5 | 110 | U 7.5 | -105 | -189 | | | In | | 9 | STL | R | Carlos Martinez | | 3.0 | 6.1 | 0.3 | | 56.2 | 33.1 | 72.5 | | 9 | 41.5 | 1.6 | | -9.2 | -14.6 | 21.2 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -125 | O 8.0 | -110 | 155 | | 51 | 9mph | | 2 | PIT | R | Wil Crowe | | 4.2 | 8.7 | 0.3 | | 45.7 | 62.2 | 52.1 | | 2 | 38.5 | 2.5 | | 6.5 | 6.6 | -0.3 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | 0.80 | |
| | -1.5 | 105 | U 8.0 | -110 | -189 | | | In | | 3 | CHC | R | Trevor Williams | | 4.5 | 7.4 | 0.3 | | 54.3 | 37.8 | 47.9 | | 2 | 48.3 | 2.8 | | -11.1 | -11.0 | -4.5 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 140 | O 7.0 | -120 | -141 | | 73 | 11mph | | 1 | SD | R | Joe Musgrove | | 3.3 | 7.6 | 0.4 | | 42.6 | 29.1 | 44.7 | | 1 | 32.2 | 1.6 | | -16.0 | -12.6 | -9.9 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | -161 | U 7.0 | 100 | 115 | | | Out | | 7 | SF | R | Kevin Gausman | | 3.7 | 7.0 | 0.2 | | 57.5 | 70.9 | 55.3 | | 4 | 47.1 | 2.0 | | 10.9 | 9.2 | 5.3 | | ● | ● | ● | | 1.15 | 0.62 | -1 |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 125 | O 7.5 | 100 | -145 | | 76 | 12mph | | 3 | TB | R | Tyler Glasnow | | 5.8 | 10.6 | 0.1 | | 62.1 | 50.4 | 65.2 | | 0 | 61.6 | 3.6 | | 2.9 | 5.9 | 15.2 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | -1 | 1.00 |
| | 1.5 | -145 | U 7.5 | -120 | 120 | | | L-R | | 6 | OAK | R | Frankie Montas | | 4.1 | 6.9 | 0.2 | | 38.0 | 49.7 | 34.8 | | 3 | 26.8 | 2.1 | | -7.5 | -9.5 | -19.7 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | -120 | O 8.0 | -105 | -200 | | 56 | 5mph | | 3 | MIN | R | Jose Berrios | | 4.2 | 7.7 | 0.2 | | 53.8 | 40.4 | 42.6 | | 2 | 42.5 | 2.0 | | -12.9 | -14.2 | -8.7 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | 100 | U 8.0 | -115 | 165 | | | Out | | 7 | DET | R | Jose Urena | | 3.6 | 7.3 | 0.4 | | 46.2 | 59.7 | 57.5 | | 2 | 40.0 | 2.0 | | 8.5 | 9.7 | 4.0 | | ● | ● | ● | | 1.65 | 1.00 | -1 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -200 | O 8.0 | 100 | 105 | | 50 | 5mph | | 2 | CIN | R | Luis Castillo | | 4.3 | 7.9 | 0.3 | | 49.5 | 68.1 | 48.6 | | 1 | 39.5 | 2.4 | | 0.7 | 1.4 | -1.4 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
| | -1.5 | 170 | U 8.0 | -120 | -125 | | | L-R | | 9 | CLE | R | Aaron Civale | | 4.1 | 8.7 | 0.4 | | 50.6 | 31.9 | 51.4 | | 6 | 43.6 | 2.5 | | -5.0 | -5.1 | -3.2 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 140 | O 8.0 | -110 | -120 | | 72 | 0mph | | 6 | MIL | R | Adrian Houser | | 4.2 | 8.1 | 0.4 | | 51.3 | 37.3 | 45.6 | | 5 | 47.0 | 2.5 | | -3.2 | -4.4 | -6.8 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | -160 | U 8.0 | -110 | 100 | | | Unknown | | 2 | MIA | R | Nick Neidert | | 3.9 | 8.0 | 0.4 | | 48.7 | 62.8 | 54.4 | | 1 | 37.7 | 2.1 | | -1.3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | | | ● | ● | | | -1 | 0.00 |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 115 | O 9.0 | -115 | -141 | | 57 | 11mph | | 11 | BOS | R | Garrett Richards | | 4.6 | 8.9 | 0.3 | | 55.0 | 41.3 | 41.2 | | 9 | 45.6 | 2.6 | | -3.6 | -5.2 | -12.3 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | -135 | U 9.0 | -105 | 115 | | | L-R | | 6 | BAL | L | Zac Lowther | | 3.9 | 7.7 | 0.3 | | 45.1 | 58.7 | 58.8 | | 2 | 38.4 | 2.3 | | -1.5 | 1.3 | 7.6 | | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -208 | O 9.0 | -110 | -105 | | 72 | 0mph | | 8 | SEA | R | Ljay Newsome | | 4.9 | 9.5 | 0.3 | | 45.2 | 61.6 | 56.8 | | 5 | 39.5 | 2.9 | | -6.1 | -5.9 | 4.4 | | | | ● | | | | 0.91 |
| | -1.5 | 175 | U 9.0 | -110 | -115 | | | Unknown | | 9 | TEX | R | Kohei Arihara | | 5.4 | 10.2 | 0.2 | | 54.9 | 38.4 | 43.2 | | 4 | 47.9 | 3.3 | | 1.4 | 2.0 | -9.2 | | ● | ● | | | 0.87 | -1 | |
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| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
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| Box | | -1.5 | -110 | O 9.0 | -105 | -175 | | 78 | 15mph | | 9 | CWS | R | Lance Lynn | | 5.8 | 10.3 | 0.3 | | 59.3 | 47.6 | 56.0 | | 8 | 50.7 | 3.3 | | -4.3 | -4.8 | 4.7 | | | | ● | | | | 0.95 |
| | 1.5 | -110 | U 9.0 | -115 | 145 | | | R-L | | 1 | KC | L | Daniel Lynch | | 4.4 | 8.9 | 0.3 | | 40.7 | 52.4 | 44.1 | | 0 | 35.0 | 2.5 | | -0.1 | 0.0 | -9.4 | | | ● | | | | -1 | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -161 | O 9.0 | -120 | 120 | | 72 | 0mph | | 8 | TOR | L | Steven Matz | | 4.2 | 6.8 | 0.5 | | 33.4 | 50.0 | 53.8 | | 5 | 26.4 | 2.1 | | -12.1 | -11.7 | -0.8 | | | | | | | | |
| | -1.5 | 140 | U 9.0 | 100 | -145 | | | Unknown | | 4 | HOU | R | Cristian Javier | | 5.7 | 9.5 | 0.1 | | 66.7 | 50.1 | 46.3 | | 3 | 60.0 | 3.5 | | 7.5 | 8.4 | -3.7 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -170 | O 8.0 | -110 | 120 | | 52 | 5mph | | 2 | ARI | R | Merrill Kelly | | 4.0 | 7.8 | 0.4 | | 49.7 | 69.8 | 42.5 | | 0 | 44.2 | 2.2 | | 4.2 | 6.8 | -9.9 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
| | -1.5 | 150 | U 8.0 | -110 | -145 | | | L-R | | 4 | NYM | L | Joey Lucchesi | | 3.8 | 8.0 | 0.4 | | 50.4 | 30.3 | 57.5 | | 3 | 38.0 | 2.0 | | -8.8 | -9.8 | 5.1 | | | | ● | | | | 0.91 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -135 | O 9.0 | 100 | 145 | | 71 | 5mph | | 7 | PHI | R | Vince Velasquez | | 3.3 | 7.5 | 0.3 | | 27.3 | 44.3 | 43.0 | | 3 | 19.2 | 1.4 | | -13.6 | -13.2 | -7.0 | | | | | | | | |
| | -1.5 | 115 | U 9.0 | -120 | -175 | | | Out | | 8 | ATL | R | Ian Anderson | | 5.4 | 8.5 | 0.2 | | 72.8 | 55.8 | 57.0 | | 0 | 68.3 | 3.5 | | 9.1 | 9.2 | 2.4 | | ● | ● | ● | | 0.57 | -1 | -1 |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 115 | O 8.0 | -115 | -141 | | 68 | 8mph | | 14 | LAD | L | Clayton Kershaw | | 5.1 | 8.7 | 0.3 | | 59.6 | 48.2 | 54.5 | | 13 | 51.2 | 2.7 | | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | | ● | ● | ● | | 0.71 | 1.15 | 0.87 |
| | 1.5 | -135 | U 8.0 | -105 | 115 | | | Out | | 11 | LAA | R | Dylan Bundy | | 3.9 | 8.4 | 0.4 | | 40.5 | 51.8 | 45.5 | | 0 | 33.8 | 2.0 | | -6.1 | -5.6 | -5.7 | | | | | | | | |
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