Sports Betting Truth Major League Baseball Model Outputs
Results
| Moneyline | | Run Line(1.5) | | Overs | | Unders | |
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| W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit |
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| 5-9-2021 | 3 | 9 | 25.0 | -6.12 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 15.88 | 1.40 | | 4 | 9 | 30.8 | -5.40 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 11.57 | 0.59 | | 4 | 2 | 66.7 | 1.65 | | 3 | 1 | 75.0 | 2.00 | 1.74 | | 5 | 0 | 100.0 | 4.57 | | 5 | 0 | 100.0 | 0.94 | 4.57 |
| Last 14 | 76 | 75 | 50.3 | -7.84 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.59 | 0.80 | | 82 | 75 | 52.2 | -1.57 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 21.28 | 1.45 | | 39 | 34 | 53.4 | 1.52 | | 37 | 31 | 54.4 | 0.53 | 2.61 | | 28 | 39 | 41.8 | -13.94 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.82 | 0.91 |
| Year to Date | 231 | 268 | 46.3 | -59.42 | | 71 | 64 | 52.6 | 7.67 | -0.34 | | 256 | 258 | 49.8 | -34.47 | | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 21.28 | 0.45 | | 162 | 135 | 54.5 | 11.40 | | 75 | 51 | 59.5 | 8.08 | 16.83 | | 93 | 104 | 47.2 | -20.60 | | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 21.23 | -1.00 |
The model is back up and running for the time being. I can't guarantee daily updates or that I will continue for the rest of the year but I just wanted to return to it for now.
Games Of 5-9-2021
| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 115 | O 9.0 | -110 | -135 | | 56 | 9mph | | 4 | BOS | R | Nick Pivetta | | 5.3 | 9.4 | 0.3 | | 63.0 | 49.8 | 46.7 | | 1 | 55.1 | 3.1 | | 5.5 | 3.3 | -5.7 | | ● | ● | | | 0.74 | -1 | |
| | 1.5 | -135 | U 9.0 | -110 | 110 | | | Out | | 3 | BAL | R | Dean Kremer | | 3.7 | 7.4 | 0.3 | | 37.1 | 50.2 | 53.3 | | 2 | 30.5 | 2.1 | | -10.6 | -7.2 | 0.9 | | | | ● | | | | 0.91 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -145 | O 9.0 | -120 | 125 | | 62 | 9mph | | 2 | WSH | R | Joe Ross | | 4.2 | 8.6 | 0.3 | | 46.9 | 63.4 | 41.5 | | 0 | 40.4 | 2.5 | | 2.4 | 4.2 | -13.1 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | 0.69 | |
| | -1.5 | 125 | U 9.0 | 100 | -149 | | | Out | | 3 | NYY | R | Domingo German | | 4.4 | 7.8 | 0.3 | | 53.2 | 36.6 | 58.6 | | 1 | 44.3 | 2.6 | | -6.7 | -7.8 | 8.6 | | | | ● | | | | 1.00 |
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| Box | | -1.5 | -105 | O 7.5 | 100 | -164 | | 42 | 11mph | | 0 | MIN | R | Kenta Maeda | | 4.9 | 9.1 | 0.2 | | 52.9 | 40.1 | 60.1 | | 0 | 43.8 | 2.6 | | -9.3 | -11.1 | 10.1 | | | | ● | | | | 0.00 |
| | 1.5 | -115 | U 7.5 | -120 | 140 | | | R-L | | 0 | DET | L | Matthew Boyd | | 4.3 | 8.6 | 0.5 | | 47.2 | 59.9 | 39.9 | | 0 | 40.7 | 2.4 | | 5.5 | 6.4 | -14.6 | | ● | ● | | | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | 115 | O 7.0 | 105 | 260 | | 45 | 11mph | | 2 | ARI | R | Riley Smith | | 2.3 | 5.2 | 0.3 | | 31.0 | 52.4 | 36.7 | | 1 | 22.3 | 1.1 | | 3.2 | 5.9 | -12.1 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
| | -1.5 | -135 | U 7.0 | -125 | -345 | | | Out | | 4 | NYM | R | Jacob deGrom | | 3.8 | 7.9 | 0.3 | | 69.0 | 47.6 | 63.4 | | 2 | 55.8 | 2.3 | | -8.5 | -9.8 | 7.8 | | | | ● | | | | 0.80 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -179 | O 7.0 | 105 | 125 | | 72 | 0mph | | 2 | MIL | L | Brett Anderson | | 3.0 | 6.7 | 0.3 | | 34.8 | 57.6 | 47.2 | | 1 | 27.2 | 1.6 | | -9.7 | -6.6 | -1.6 | | | | | | | | |
| | -1.5 | 155 | U 7.0 | -125 | -154 | | | Unknown | | 1 | MIA | R | Sandy Alcantara | | 4.2 | 8.3 | 0.4 | | 65.3 | 42.5 | 52.9 | | 0 | 56.4 | 2.6 | | 4.6 | 3.2 | -2.7 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 110 | O 7.5 | 100 | -154 | | 49 | 13mph | | 9 | CWS | R | Lucas Giolito | | 4.6 | 8.4 | 0.3 | | 55.6 | 42.1 | 52.0 | | 5 | 48.7 | 2.6 | | -5.0 | -5.5 | 2.0 | | | | ● | | | | 1.00 |
| | 1.5 | -130 | U 7.5 | -120 | 125 | | | In | | 3 | KC | L | Mike Minor | | 3.7 | 7.5 | 0.3 | | 44.4 | 57.9 | 48.0 | | 1 | 36.4 | 2.1 | | 0.0 | 1.4 | -6.5 | | | ● | | | | -1 | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -141 | O 9.0 | -110 | 146 | | 72 | 0mph | | 4 | TOR | R | Nate Pearson | | 5.1 | 9.5 | 0.4 | | 51.5 | 67.9 | 52.4 | | 4 | 45.7 | 2.9 | | 10.8 | 9.3 | 0.0 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | -1 | 0.91 |
| | -1.5 | 120 | U 9.0 | -110 | -156 | | | Unknown | | 7 | HOU | R | Zack Greinke | | 4.7 | 7.9 | 0.2 | | 48.6 | 32.2 | 47.6 | | 7 | 41.0 | 2.8 | | -12.4 | -13.3 | -4.8 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -169 | O 7.0 | -110 | 125 | | 47 | 15mph | | 0 | COL | R | German Marquez | | 3.3 | 7.8 | 0.4 | | 46.2 | 69.5 | 40.9 | | 0 | 40.9 | 1.8 | | 1.7 | 6.6 | -11.5 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
| | -1.5 | 145 | U 7.0 | -110 | -149 | | | L-R | | 2 | STL | R | Adam Wainwright | | 3.3 | 6.9 | 0.3 | | 53.9 | 30.6 | 59.1 | | 2 | 39.8 | 1.8 | | -6.0 | -10.3 | 6.7 | | | | ● | | | | 0.91 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -169 | O 6.0 | -115 | 140 | | 47 | 14mph | | 6 | PIT | L | Tyler Anderson | | 4.4 | 9.0 | 0.4 | | 57.6 | 74.4 | 66.2 | | 6 | 47.4 | 2.4 | | 15.9 | 11.6 | 12.7 | | ● | ● | ● | | 1.40 | 0.59 | 0.87 |
| | -1.5 | 145 | U 6.0 | -105 | -164 | | | In | | 5 | CHC | R | Kyle Hendricks | | 3.6 | 6.9 | 0.3 | | 42.5 | 25.6 | 33.8 | | 2 | 35.2 | 1.9 | | -19.7 | -15.2 | -17.4 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -169 | O 8.0 | -115 | 110 | | 81 | 11mph | | 2 | SEA | L | Justus Sheffield | | 4.2 | 9.3 | 0.2 | | 39.4 | 57.0 | 56.7 | | 2 | 32.3 | 2.0 | | -8.2 | -5.8 | 3.2 | | | | ● | | | | 0.87 |
| | -1.5 | 145 | U 8.0 | -105 | -135 | | | L-R | | 10 | TEX | R | Dane Dunning | | 5.1 | 10.6 | 0.2 | | 60.6 | 43.0 | 43.3 | | 7 | 53.4 | 2.9 | | 3.2 | 2.2 | -7.9 | | ● | ● | | | 0.74 | 1.45 | |
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| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
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| Box | | -1.5 | -120 | O 8.5 | -120 | -189 | | 70 | 9mph | | 1 | LAD | R | Trevor Bauer | | 5.6 | 9.9 | 0.3 | | 67.5 | 55.6 | 51.9 | | 1 | 58.5 | 3.2 | | 2.1 | 1.1 | -2.7 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
| | 1.5 | 100 | U 8.5 | 100 | 155 | | | Out | | 2 | LAA | L | Jose Quintana | | 3.6 | 6.9 | 0.4 | | 32.5 | 44.4 | 48.2 | | 2 | 26.6 | 1.8 | | -6.7 | -5.6 | -1.9 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -200 | O 7.5 | -115 | 100 | | 70 | 9mph | | 4 | TB | L | Shane McClanahan | | 4.0 | 8.7 | 0.1 | | 39.4 | 58.9 | 54.5 | | 3 | 32.5 | 2.0 | | -10.7 | -7.8 | 1.0 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
| | -1.5 | 170 | U 7.5 | -105 | -120 | | | Out | | 3 | OAK | L | Cole Irvin | | 4.7 | 8.4 | 0.2 | | 60.7 | 41.1 | 45.6 | | 3 | 51.8 | 2.7 | | 6.1 | 4.1 | -5.7 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 140 | O 7.5 | -115 | -110 | | 81 | 12mph | | 1 | PHI | R | Aaron Nola | | 4.3 | 8.4 | 0.3 | | 56.6 | 42.4 | 45.2 | | 1 | 48.0 | 2.2 | | 4.2 | 0.7 | -8.3 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
| | 1.5 | -164 | U 7.5 | -105 | -110 | | | In | | 6 | ATL | R | Huascar Ynoa | | 3.4 | 7.9 | 0.2 | | 43.4 | 57.6 | 54.8 | | 5 | 32.2 | 1.7 | | -9.0 | -4.5 | 3.6 | | | | ● | | | | 0.95 |
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