Sports Betting Truth Major League Baseball Model Outputs
Results
| Moneyline | | Run Line(1.5) | | Overs | | Unders | |
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| W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit |
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| 6-12-2021 | 4 | 5 | 44.4 | -0.18 | | 2 | 1 | 66.7 | 8.09 | 0.86 | | 7 | 4 | 63.6 | 2.40 | | 7 | 3 | 70.0 | 0.50 | 3.40 | | 4 | 2 | 66.7 | 1.45 | | 4 | 1 | 80.0 | 4.04 | 2.45 | | 1 | 5 | 16.7 | -4.13 | | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 20.21 | -1.00 |
| Last 14 | 76 | 75 | 50.3 | -7.84 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.59 | 0.80 | | 82 | 75 | 52.2 | -1.57 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 21.28 | 1.45 | | 39 | 34 | 53.4 | 1.52 | | 37 | 31 | 54.4 | 0.53 | 2.61 | | 28 | 39 | 41.8 | -13.94 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.82 | 0.91 |
| Year to Date | 231 | 268 | 46.3 | -59.42 | | 71 | 64 | 52.6 | 7.67 | -0.34 | | 256 | 258 | 49.8 | -34.47 | | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 21.28 | 0.45 | | 162 | 135 | 54.5 | 11.40 | | 75 | 51 | 59.5 | 8.08 | 16.83 | | 93 | 104 | 47.2 | -20.60 | | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 21.23 | -1.00 |
The model is back up and running for the time being. I can't guarantee daily updates or that I will continue for the rest of the year but I just wanted to return to it for now.
Games Of 6-12-2021
| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 135 | O 9.0 | -105 | -120 | | 75 | 5mph | | 7 | NYY | R | Jameson Taillon | | 4.9 | 7.1 | 0.2 | | 54.8 | 42.7 | 45.1 | | 2 | 48.9 | 2.8 | | 0.3 | 0.1 | -6.2 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
| | 1.5 | -161 | U 9.0 | -115 | 100 | | | R-L | | 8 | PHI | R | Vince Velasquez | | 4.1 | 8.1 | 0.4 | | 45.2 | 57.4 | 55.0 | | 7 | 37.1 | 2.3 | | -4.8 | -4.3 | 1.5 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -141 | O 9.0 | -115 | 140 | | 69 | 10mph | | 2 | KC | R | Jackson Kowar | | 3.0 | 6.4 | 0.4 | | 32.9 | 54.1 | 28.6 | | 0 | 26.8 | 1.4 | | -8.8 | -4.5 | -24.9 | | | | | | | | |
| | -1.5 | 120 | U 9.0 | -105 | -164 | | | Out | | 11 | OAK | R | James Kaprielian | | 4.3 | 7.5 | 0.2 | | 67.2 | 46.0 | 71.4 | | 5 | 54.3 | 2.5 | | 5.0 | 0.5 | 20.2 | | ● | ● | ● | | 0.61 | 1.20 | -1 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -179 | O 9.5 | -105 | 100 | | 69 | 4mph | | 7 | TOR | L | Steven Matz | | 5.0 | 9.0 | 0.4 | | 39.6 | 57.4 | 56.3 | | 6 | 37.7 | 2.8 | | -10.5 | -6.8 | 5.0 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
| | -1.5 | 150 | U 9.5 | -115 | -120 | | | R-L | | 2 | BOS | R | Nick Pivetta | | 5.7 | 10.2 | 0.2 | | 60.5 | 42.6 | 43.8 | | 0 | 50.6 | 3.3 | | 5.9 | 2.6 | -9.7 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -185 | O 8.0 | -115 | 100 | | 76 | 7mph | | 4 | SEA | L | Yusei Kikuchi | | 5.3 | 8.3 | 0.3 | | 52.9 | 70.7 | 59.9 | | 3 | 50.4 | 3.1 | | 2.9 | 5.7 | 6.4 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | 0.54 | 0.87 |
| | -1.5 | 155 | U 8.0 | -105 | -120 | | | In | | 5 | CLE | R | Triston McKenzie | | 4.4 | 8.5 | 0.3 | | 47.1 | 29.4 | 40.1 | | 0 | 35.5 | 2.4 | | -7.4 | -9.9 | -11.1 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | -110 | O 9.5 | -105 | -172 | | 85 | 5mph | | 15 | CWS | R | Dylan Cease | | 5.4 | 10.1 | 0.3 | | 61.9 | 50.2 | 42.1 | | 13 | 53.7 | 2.9 | | -1.4 | -2.2 | -9.2 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | -110 | U 9.5 | -115 | 145 | | | In | | 2 | DET | R | Jose Urena | | 3.8 | 8.4 | 0.4 | | 38.2 | 49.8 | 58.0 | | 2 | 32.5 | 2.1 | | -2.7 | -2.6 | 4.5 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | 105 | O 7.5 | -105 | 225 | | 79 | 6mph | | 4 | PIT | R | Chad Kuhl | | 3.0 | 7.5 | 0.3 | | 28.0 | 45.8 | 47.1 | | 4 | 18.9 | 1.2 | | -2.8 | -3.0 | -4.2 | | | | | | | | |
| | -1.5 | -125 | U 7.5 | -115 | -286 | | | L-R | | 7 | MIL | R | Corbin Burnes | | 4.9 | 7.2 | 0.3 | | 72.0 | 54.2 | 53.0 | | 7 | 66.3 | 3.1 | | -2.1 | -1.4 | -0.5 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -164 | O 9.0 | -110 | 120 | | 90 | 5mph | | 3 | COL | R | German Marquez | | 3.1 | 7.2 | 0.3 | | 23.0 | 41.1 | 41.9 | | 3 | 21.1 | 1.5 | | -22.5 | -21.1 | -10.5 | | | | | | | | |
| | -1.5 | 140 | U 9.0 | -110 | -141 | | | L-R | | 10 | CIN | L | Wade Miley | | 5.5 | 8.5 | 0.2 | | 77.0 | 59.0 | 58.2 | | 7 | 62.7 | 3.1 | | 18.5 | 17.3 | 5.8 | | ● | ● | ● | | 0.71 | 1.40 | -1 |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 135 | O 7.0 | -105 | -135 | | 68 | 5mph | | 1 | SD | R | Joe Musgrove | | 3.5 | 8.0 | 0.4 | | 45.4 | 32.0 | 44.6 | | 0 | 34.9 | 1.5 | | -12.0 | -10.6 | -6.6 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | -161 | U 7.0 | -115 | 115 | | | Out | | 4 | NYM | R | Marcus Stroman | | 3.6 | 7.1 | 0.3 | | 54.6 | 68.1 | 55.4 | | 2 | 44.1 | 1.8 | | 8.1 | 6.4 | 1.9 | | ● | ● | ● | | 1.15 | 0.62 | 0.87 |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 135 | O 9.0 | 100 | -120 | | 72 | 0mph | | 8 | LAA | R | Alex Cobb | | 3.5 | 7.2 | 0.3 | | 50.5 | 35.8 | 25.5 | | 4 | 36.0 | 1.6 | | -4.0 | -6.8 | -24.5 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | -161 | U 9.0 | -120 | 100 | | | Unknown | | 7 | ARI | L | Caleb Smith | | 3.3 | 7.7 | 0.3 | | 49.5 | 64.2 | 74.5 | | 5 | 41.5 | 1.7 | | -0.5 | 2.5 | 20.0 | | | ● | ● | | | 0.62 | -1 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -115 | O 7.5 | -125 | 175 | | 72 | 0mph | | 4 | BAL | R | Jorge Lopez | | 3.9 | 8.1 | 0.2 | | 36.3 | 54.2 | 59.6 | | 4 | 32.7 | 2.2 | | -0.1 | 0.7 | 4.0 | | | ● | ● | | | 0.87 | 0.80 |
| | -1.5 | -105 | U 7.5 | 105 | -222 | | | Unknown | | 5 | TB | L | Rich Hill | | 5.2 | 8.3 | 0.1 | | 63.7 | 45.8 | 40.4 | | 5 | 54.1 | 3.2 | | -5.2 | -5.4 | -8.4 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 145 | O 9.5 | 100 | -115 | | 86 | 9mph | | 2 | HOU | R | Luis Garcia | | 5.6 | 10.4 | 0.2 | | 57.4 | 45.9 | 51.9 | | 0 | 49.2 | 2.9 | | 3.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| | 1.5 | -172 | U 9.5 | -120 | -105 | | | Out | | 5 | MIN | R | Jose Berrios | | 4.7 | 7.3 | 0.4 | | 42.6 | 54.1 | 48.2 | | 4 | 36.4 | 2.4 | | -8.6 | -9.1 | -6.4 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -135 | O 8.5 | -110 | 155 | | 75 | 7mph | | 2 | STL | R | John Gant | | 5.1 | 9.9 | 0.3 | | 55.4 | 72.7 | 57.3 | | 2 | 48.5 | 3.0 | | 16.1 | 15.3 | 4.9 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | -1 | 0.91 |
| | -1.5 | 115 | U 8.5 | -110 | -185 | | | In | | 7 | CHC | R | Kyle Hendricks | | 4.5 | 7.7 | 0.4 | | 44.7 | 27.3 | 42.8 | | 7 | 38.8 | 2.7 | | -20.3 | -19.2 | -9.6 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | 115 | O 7.5 | -115 | 235 | | 77 | 5mph | | 12 | TEX | L | Kolby Allard | | 3.9 | 6.6 | 0.3 | | 32.2 | 50.7 | 62.1 | | 4 | 28.5 | 1.9 | | 2.3 | 4.1 | 8.6 | | ● | ● | ● | | 2.35 | 1.15 | 0.87 |
| | -1.5 | -135 | U 7.5 | -105 | -303 | | | Out | | 1 | LAD | R | Trevor Bauer | | 5.5 | 9.1 | 0.3 | | 67.8 | 49.4 | 37.9 | | 0 | 56.5 | 3.1 | | -7.4 | -8.1 | -13.3 | | | | | | | | |
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