Sports Betting Truth Major League Baseball Model Outputs
Results
| Moneyline | | Run Line(1.5) | | Overs | | Unders | |
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| W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit |
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| 6-18-2021 | 7 | 6 | 53.8 | 1.37 | | 6 | 4 | 60.0 | 3.10 | 2.61 | | 6 | 7 | 46.2 | -2.09 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 12.51 | 0.62 | | 2 | 2 | 50.0 | -0.40 | | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 5.44 | -0.20 | | 3 | 1 | 75.0 | 1.67 | | 3 | 1 | 75.0 | 3.15 | 1.67 |
| Last 14 | 76 | 75 | 50.3 | -7.84 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.59 | 0.80 | | 82 | 75 | 52.2 | -1.57 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 21.28 | 1.45 | | 39 | 34 | 53.4 | 1.52 | | 37 | 31 | 54.4 | 0.53 | 2.61 | | 28 | 39 | 41.8 | -13.94 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.82 | 0.91 |
| Year to Date | 231 | 268 | 46.3 | -59.42 | | 71 | 64 | 52.6 | 7.67 | -0.34 | | 256 | 258 | 49.8 | -34.47 | | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 21.28 | 0.45 | | 162 | 135 | 54.5 | 11.40 | | 75 | 51 | 59.5 | 8.08 | 16.83 | | 93 | 104 | 47.2 | -20.60 | | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 21.23 | -1.00 |
The model is back up and running for the time being. I can't guarantee daily updates or that I will continue for the rest of the year but I just wanted to return to it for now.
Games Of 6-18-2021
| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
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| Box | | -1.5 | -110 | O 10.0 | -105 | -185 | | 84 | 10mph | | 1 | TOR | L | Robbie Ray | | 6.1 | 10.4 | 0.4 | | 55.5 | 44.4 | 58.3 | | 1 | 45.9 | 3.4 | | -9.4 | -8.0 | 7.0 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
| | 1.5 | -110 | U 10.0 | -115 | 155 | | | Out | | 7 | BAL | L | Bruce Zimmermann | | 5.2 | 8.8 | 0.3 | | 44.5 | 55.7 | 41.8 | | 2 | 42.1 | 3.2 | | 5.3 | 3.3 | -11.7 | | ● | ● | | | 1.55 | 0.91 | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -161 | O 9.5 | -115 | 125 | | 80 | 11mph | | 5 | OAK | R | James Kaprielian | | 5.7 | 9.5 | 0.2 | | 58.6 | 74.2 | 53.0 | | 2 | 56.7 | 3.4 | | 14.1 | 12.5 | -0.5 | | ● | ● | | | 1.25 | 0.62 | |
| | -1.5 | 135 | U 9.5 | -105 | -145 | | | Out | | 3 | NYY | R | Jameson Taillon | | 4.6 | 7.9 | 0.2 | | 41.5 | 25.8 | 47.0 | | 3 | 29.6 | 2.3 | | -17.7 | -16.8 | -4.2 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -192 | O 9.0 | -115 | 110 | | 81 | 8mph | | 0 | NYM | L | Joey Lucchesi | | 4.5 | 9.1 | 0.3 | | 42.4 | 59.8 | 52.3 | | 0 | 34.3 | 2.3 | | -5.2 | -6.0 | -1.2 | | | | | | | | |
| | -1.5 | 160 | U 9.0 | -105 | -132 | | | Out | | 1 | WSH | R | Erick Fedde | | 5.2 | 9.5 | 0.3 | | 57.6 | 40.3 | 47.7 | | 0 | 52.8 | 3.2 | | 0.7 | 1.8 | -3.5 | | ● | ● | | | 0.76 | -1 | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 120 | O 9.0 | -105 | -135 | | 83 | 10mph | | 10 | CLE | R | J.C. Mejia | | 4.6 | 8.2 | 0.3 | | 46.2 | 35.4 | 48.6 | | 0 | 41.9 | 2.6 | | -11.2 | -10.1 | -2.6 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | -141 | U 9.0 | -115 | 115 | | | R-L | | 11 | PIT | R | Chad Kuhl | | 4.7 | 9.1 | 0.3 | | 53.8 | 64.7 | 51.4 | | 6 | 43.1 | 2.7 | | 7.3 | 6.1 | -2.1 | | ● | ● | | | 1.15 | 0.71 | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -141 | O 9.5 | -110 | 130 | | 89 | 7mph | | 1 | STL | R | Carlos Martinez | | 5.0 | 10.0 | 0.3 | | 48.8 | 68.2 | 47.8 | | 1 | 44.5 | 2.9 | | 5.3 | 9.7 | -4.6 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
| | -1.5 | 120 | U 9.5 | -110 | -149 | | | R-L | | 9 | ATL | L | Max Fried | | 4.9 | 8.3 | 0.3 | | 51.3 | 31.8 | 52.2 | | 9 | 42.0 | 2.9 | | -8.6 | -13.7 | -0.2 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | -105 | O 8.5 | -125 | -164 | | 72 | 0mph | | 7 | MIN | R | Jose Berrios | | 5.3 | 10.2 | 0.3 | | 53.5 | 40.5 | 61.0 | | 4 | 48.6 | 3.2 | | -8.7 | -10.7 | 5.4 | | | | ● | | | | 0.80 |
| | 1.5 | -115 | U 8.5 | 105 | 140 | | | Unknown | | 5 | TEX | R | Mike Foltynewicz | | 4.9 | 9.2 | 0.3 | | 46.6 | 59.5 | 39.0 | | 3 | 38.8 | 2.8 | | 4.9 | 6.0 | -9.8 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 145 | O 8.0 | 100 | -115 | | 72 | 0mph | | 1 | CWS | L | Carlos Rodon | | 3.7 | 7.0 | 0.3 | | 45.0 | 32.2 | 41.6 | | 1 | 35.9 | 1.8 | | -8.5 | -8.6 | -8.4 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | -172 | U 8.0 | -120 | -105 | | | Unknown | | 2 | HOU | R | Luis Garcia | | 3.9 | 8.0 | 0.2 | | 55.1 | 67.8 | 58.4 | | 1 | 44.9 | 2.1 | | 3.8 | 4.6 | 3.9 | | ● | ● | ● | | 0.95 | 0.58 | 0.83 |
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| Box | | -1.5 | -125 | O 10.5 | -105 | -200 | | 82 | 14mph | | 5 | MIL | R | Corbin Burnes | | 5.8 | 10.4 | 0.3 | | 69.7 | 57.0 | 36.4 | | 4 | 64.5 | 3.2 | | 3.0 | 1.4 | -14.9 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
| | 1.5 | 105 | U 10.5 | -115 | 170 | | | Out | | 6 | COL | R | Antonio Senzatela | | 3.4 | 8.1 | 0.3 | | 30.3 | 43.1 | 63.7 | | 2 | 21.3 | 1.5 | | -6.7 | -5.7 | 10.2 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -105 | O 9.0 | -125 | 175 | | 74 | 8mph | | 3 | DET | R | Jose Urena | | 4.6 | 9.0 | 0.3 | | 37.2 | 55.1 | 57.0 | | 0 | 32.1 | 2.4 | | 0.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | -1 | 0.80 |
| | -1.5 | -115 | U 9.0 | 105 | -222 | | | Out | | 11 | LAA | R | Alex Cobb | | 5.8 | 10.3 | 0.3 | | 62.9 | 45.0 | 43.0 | | 7 | 54.9 | 3.4 | | -6.1 | -8.5 | -5.8 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | -132 | O 9.5 | 100 | -200 | | 72 | 0mph | | 3 | LAD | R | Trevor Bauer | | 4.3 | 7.7 | 0.3 | | 56.3 | 42.6 | 28.7 | | 0 | 41.1 | 2.0 | | -10.4 | -14.3 | -21.4 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | 110 | U 9.5 | -120 | 170 | | | Unknown | | 0 | ARI | L | Caleb Smith | | 3.5 | 6.8 | 0.3 | | 43.8 | 57.4 | 71.4 | | 0 | 39.7 | 1.8 | | 6.7 | 9.8 | 16.8 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | -1 | 0.83 |
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| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -185 | O 8.5 | -110 | 110 | | 67 | 10mph | | 3 | PHI | R | Vince Velasquez | | 4.4 | 9.7 | 0.3 | | 40.0 | 60.0 | 54.8 | | 3 | 35.8 | 2.4 | | -7.6 | -5.0 | 2.4 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
| | -1.5 | 155 | U 8.5 | -110 | -132 | | | Out | | 5 | SF | R | Johnny Cueto | | 5.0 | 7.8 | 0.3 | | 60.0 | 40.1 | 45.2 | | 5 | 49.7 | 3.1 | | 3.1 | 0.8 | -7.2 | | ● | ● | | | 0.76 | 1.55 | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 155 | O 7.5 | -120 | -115 | | 70 | 8mph | | 1 | TB | R | Collin McHugh | | 3.8 | 7.7 | 0.1 | | 44.6 | 32.3 | 46.9 | | 1 | 36.3 | 1.9 | | -8.9 | -6.9 | -7.7 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | -185 | U 7.5 | 100 | -105 | | | In | | 5 | SEA | L | Yusei Kikuchi | | 4.0 | 7.3 | 0.3 | | 55.4 | 67.7 | 53.2 | | 5 | 45.6 | 2.2 | | 4.2 | 2.8 | 3.1 | | ● | ● | ● | | 0.95 | 0.54 | 1.00 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -115 | O 9.0 | 100 | 170 | | 67 | 6mph | | 2 | CIN | R | Tony Santillan | | 4.8 | 8.7 | 0.2 | | 48.6 | 65.6 | 49.8 | | 2 | 43.9 | 2.6 | | 11.5 | 12.1 | -0.2 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
| | -1.5 | -105 | U 9.0 | -120 | -200 | | | L-R | | 8 | SD | R | Chris Paddack | | 4.7 | 8.1 | 0.4 | | 51.5 | 34.5 | 50.2 | | 5 | 42.2 | 2.6 | | -15.2 | -16.8 | -4.3 | | | | | | | | |
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