Sports Betting Truth Major League Baseball Model Outputs
Results
| Moneyline | | Run Line(1.5) | | Overs | | Unders | |
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| W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit |
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| 6-19-2021 | 4 | 6 | 40.0 | -2.59 | | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 11.00 | -1.00 | | 6 | 5 | 54.5 | 0.52 | | 6 | 5 | 54.5 | 0.78 | 0.52 | | 2 | 2 | 50.0 | -0.05 | | 2 | 2 | 50.0 | 3.85 | -0.05 | | 1 | 6 | 14.3 | -5.13 | | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 13.57 | -1.00 |
| Last 14 | 76 | 75 | 50.3 | -7.84 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.59 | 0.80 | | 82 | 75 | 52.2 | -1.57 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 21.28 | 1.45 | | 39 | 34 | 53.4 | 1.52 | | 37 | 31 | 54.4 | 0.53 | 2.61 | | 28 | 39 | 41.8 | -13.94 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.82 | 0.91 |
| Year to Date | 231 | 268 | 46.3 | -59.42 | | 71 | 64 | 52.6 | 7.67 | -0.34 | | 256 | 258 | 49.8 | -34.47 | | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 21.28 | 0.45 | | 162 | 135 | 54.5 | 11.40 | | 75 | 51 | 59.5 | 8.08 | 16.83 | | 93 | 104 | 47.2 | -20.60 | | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 21.23 | -1.00 |
The model is back up and running for the time being. I can't guarantee daily updates or that I will continue for the rest of the year but I just wanted to return to it for now.
Games Of 6-19-2021
| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -185 | O 9.0 | -110 | 110 | | 83 | 11mph | | 11 | MIA | R | Pablo Lopez | | 4.6 | 8.9 | 0.3 | | 47.6 | 67.3 | 45.6 | | 7 | 44.9 | 2.6 | | 0.0 | 2.3 | -6.8 | | | ● | | | | 0.54 | |
| | -1.5 | 155 | U 9.0 | -110 | -132 | | | Out | | 1 | CHC | R | Jake Arrieta | | 4.4 | 8.4 | 0.3 | | 52.4 | 32.8 | 54.5 | | 0 | 41.7 | 2.5 | | -4.5 | -6.5 | 2.1 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
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| Box | | -1.5 | -110 | O 10.0 | -115 | -161 | | 85 | 10mph | | 10 | TOR | R | Alek Manoah | | 6.1 | 10.5 | 0.5 | | 67.7 | 55.9 | 46.5 | | 2 | 60.2 | 3.7 | | 6.0 | 3.5 | -7.0 | | ● | ● | | | 0.62 | 0.91 | |
| | 1.5 | -110 | U 10.0 | -105 | 135 | | | Out | | 7 | BAL | R | Dean Kremer | | 4.1 | 7.7 | 0.3 | | 32.3 | 44.1 | 53.5 | | 5 | 26.7 | 2.3 | | -10.3 | -8.3 | 2.3 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -192 | O 9.0 | -120 | 100 | | 72 | 0mph | | 3 | MIN | R | Randy Dobnak | | 4.5 | 9.2 | 0.3 | | 34.5 | 50.3 | 59.1 | | 2 | 28.0 | 2.4 | | -15.6 | -15.5 | 4.5 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
| | -1.5 | 160 | U 9.0 | 100 | -120 | | | Unknown | | 2 | TEX | L | Kolby Allard | | 6.1 | 10.9 | 0.3 | | 65.6 | 49.7 | 41.0 | | 2 | 60.4 | 4.0 | | 11.0 | 11.2 | -9.1 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 130 | O 8.5 | -125 | -120 | | 73 | 8mph | | 3 | CLE | R | Cal Quantrill | | 4.6 | 8.9 | 0.3 | | 53.4 | 41.1 | 48.6 | | 2 | 47.9 | 2.8 | | -1.1 | -2.4 | -7.0 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | -149 | U 8.5 | 105 | 100 | | | Out | | 6 | PIT | R | Wil Crowe | | 4.1 | 8.8 | 0.3 | | 46.6 | 59.0 | 51.5 | | 0 | 37.3 | 2.4 | | -3.4 | -0.9 | 2.7 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -222 | O 7.5 | -115 | -105 | | 63 | 11mph | | 13 | PHI | R | Aaron Nola | | 3.8 | 7.7 | 0.3 | | 39.4 | 59.7 | 49.4 | | 6 | 34.0 | 1.9 | | -11.8 | -9.2 | -4.1 | | | | | | | | |
| | -1.5 | 175 | U 7.5 | -105 | -115 | | | Out | | 6 | SF | L | Alex Wood | | 4.3 | 8.2 | 0.3 | | 60.6 | 40.3 | 50.7 | | 6 | 48.5 | 2.5 | | 7.1 | 3.9 | -0.6 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 125 | O 11.0 | -105 | -120 | | 94 | 9mph | | 7 | BOS | L | Martin Perez | | 7.2 | 12.4 | 0.3 | | 60.8 | 50.7 | 62.1 | | 5 | 52.4 | 4.4 | | 6.3 | 6.3 | 10.8 | | ● | ● | ● | | 0.83 | 1.25 | -1 |
| | 1.5 | -145 | U 11.0 | -115 | 100 | | | Out | | 1 | KC | R | Brad Keller | | 5.9 | 10.4 | 0.4 | | 39.2 | 49.3 | 38.0 | | 1 | 36.5 | 3.6 | | -10.8 | -9.9 | -15.5 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -192 | O 9.5 | -105 | 100 | | 70 | 10mph | | 0 | STL | R | Adam Wainwright | | 4.5 | 8.7 | 0.3 | | 46.3 | 65.5 | 41.0 | | 0 | 40.8 | 2.6 | | -3.7 | -0.3 | -10.3 | | | | | | | | |
| | -1.5 | 160 | U 9.5 | -115 | -120 | | | In | | 0 | ATL | L | Drew Smyly | | 4.6 | 7.9 | 0.3 | | 53.7 | 34.5 | 59.1 | | 0 | 43.0 | 2.7 | | -0.8 | -4.0 | 5.6 | | | | ● | | | | 0.00 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -192 | O 7.5 | -110 | 110 | | 72 | 0mph | | 3 | CWS | R | Lance Lynn | | 3.1 | 6.8 | 0.3 | | 38.7 | 59.8 | 36.9 | | 1 | 28.1 | 1.3 | | -9.0 | -6.0 | -15.5 | | | | | | | | |
| | -1.5 | 160 | U 7.5 | -110 | -132 | | | Unknown | | 7 | HOU | L | Framber Valdez | | 3.8 | 7.8 | 0.2 | | 61.4 | 40.3 | 63.2 | | 6 | 50.1 | 2.0 | | 4.5 | 1.8 | 10.8 | | ● | ● | ● | | 0.76 | 1.60 | -1 |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -145 | O 9.0 | 100 | 145 | | 71 | 9mph | | 5 | CIN | R | Vladimir Gutierre | | 4.7 | 8.1 | 0.2 | | 48.9 | 67.1 | 49.4 | | 5 | 46.4 | 2.7 | | 8.1 | 7.9 | -0.6 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | -1 | |
| | -1.5 | 125 | U 9.0 | -120 | -172 | | | L-R | | 7 | SD | R | Miguel Diaz | | 4.6 | 8.1 | 0.4 | | 51.1 | 33.0 | 50.6 | | 5 | 39.6 | 2.4 | | -12.1 | -11.5 | -3.9 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 165 | O 10.5 | -110 | 100 | | 80 | 9mph | | 6 | MIL | R | Adrian Houser | | 4.8 | 8.8 | 0.4 | | 42.9 | 33.0 | 43.8 | | 3 | 34.6 | 2.3 | | -7.1 | -4.7 | -8.6 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | -196 | U 10.5 | -110 | -120 | | | Out | | 5 | COL | L | Austin Gomber | | 5.4 | 9.8 | 0.4 | | 57.1 | 67.0 | 56.3 | | 5 | 52.2 | 3.1 | | 2.6 | 0.8 | 3.9 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | 0.51 | -1 |
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| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
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| Box | | 1.5 | -105 | O 9.5 | 100 | 175 | | 73 | 7mph | | 3 | DET | R | Wily Peralta | | 4.8 | 8.9 | 0.4 | | 36.6 | 55.8 | 53.9 | | 1 | 39.0 | 2.8 | | 0.2 | 4.6 | 3.8 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | -1 | 1.00 |
| | -1.5 | -115 | U 9.5 | -120 | -222 | | | Out | | 8 | LAA | L | Patrick Sandoval | | 5.7 | 9.8 | 0.3 | | 63.5 | 44.2 | 46.2 | | 5 | 48.5 | 3.2 | | -5.5 | -9.3 | -8.4 | | | | | | | | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | 120 | O 8.0 | -105 | -141 | | 72 | 7mph | | 5 | TB | L | Josh Fleming | | 4.8 | 8.6 | 0.1 | | 52.9 | 40.7 | 55.1 | | 3 | 46.6 | 2.7 | | -5.6 | -4.8 | 3.9 | | | | ● | | | | 0.95 |
| | 1.5 | -141 | U 8.0 | -115 | 120 | | | In | | 6 | SEA | R | Logan Gilbert | | 4.2 | 8.3 | 0.3 | | 47.1 | 59.4 | 44.9 | | 5 | 40.1 | 2.4 | | 1.6 | 0.8 | -8.6 | | ● | ● | | | 1.20 | 0.71 | |
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| Box | | -1.5 | -135 | O 9.0 | -110 | -227 | | 72 | 0mph | | 9 | LAD | R | Walker Buehler | | 4.4 | 8.6 | 0.4 | | 57.4 | 44.1 | 34.1 | | 3 | 46.2 | 2.1 | | -12.1 | -13.4 | -18.3 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | 115 | U 9.0 | -110 | 180 | | | Unknown | | 3 | ARI | R | Matt Peacock | | 3.4 | 7.7 | 0.3 | | 42.7 | 56.0 | 66.0 | | 0 | 36.2 | 1.8 | | 6.9 | 9.4 | 13.6 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | -1 | -1 |
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