Sports Betting Truth Major League Baseball Model Outputs
Results
| Moneyline | | Run Line(1.5) | | Overs | | Unders | |
|---|
| W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit | | W | L | % | U | | Key W | Key L | Key % | Key Value | Key Unit |
|---|
| 6-23-2021 | 5 | 5 | 50.0 | -0.84 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 16.51 | 0.87 | | 6 | 4 | 60.0 | 2.52 | | 5 | 2 | 71.4 | 4.76 | 3.17 | | 3 | 1 | 75.0 | 1.82 | | 3 | 1 | 75.0 | 0.53 | 1.82 | | 3 | 4 | 42.9 | -1.26 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.82 | 0.91 |
| Last 14 | 76 | 75 | 50.3 | -7.84 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.59 | 0.80 | | 82 | 75 | 52.2 | -1.57 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 21.28 | 1.45 | | 39 | 34 | 53.4 | 1.52 | | 37 | 31 | 54.4 | 0.53 | 2.61 | | 28 | 39 | 41.8 | -13.94 | | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 19.82 | 0.91 |
| Year to Date | 231 | 268 | 46.3 | -59.42 | | 71 | 64 | 52.6 | 7.67 | -0.34 | | 256 | 258 | 49.8 | -34.47 | | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 21.28 | 0.45 | | 162 | 135 | 54.5 | 11.40 | | 75 | 51 | 59.5 | 8.08 | 16.83 | | 93 | 104 | 47.2 | -20.60 | | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 21.23 | -1.00 |
The model is back up and running for the time being. I can't guarantee daily updates or that I will continue for the rest of the year but I just wanted to return to it for now.
Games Of 6-23-2021
| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
|---|
| Box | | -1.5 | -105 | O 8.5 | -105 | -164 | | 70 | 3mph | | 4 | CWS | R | Dylan Cease | | 4.6 | 8.6 | 0.3 | | 53.6 | 41.8 | 47.6 | | 4 | 48.1 | 2.7 | | -8.6 | -9.5 | -3.6 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | -115 | U 8.5 | -115 | 140 | | | Out | | 3 | PIT | R | Chase De Jong | | 4.0 | 8.7 | 0.3 | | 46.5 | 58.3 | 52.4 | | 2 | 36.2 | 2.2 | | 4.8 | 4.8 | -1.1 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | 0.87 | |
|
|
|
| Box | | -1.5 | 150 | O 9.0 | 100 | -105 | | 73 | 5mph | | 13 | WSH | R | Erick Fedde | | 4.6 | 8.1 | 0.3 | | 55.5 | 43.6 | 40.9 | | 5 | 50.1 | 2.6 | | 4.2 | 3.6 | -9.1 | | ● | ● | | | 0.95 | -1 | |
| | 1.5 | -179 | U 9.0 | -120 | -115 | | | In | | 12 | PHI | R | Vince Velasquez | | 3.8 | 7.6 | 0.4 | | 44.6 | 56.4 | 59.1 | | 9 | 32.9 | 2.0 | | -8.9 | -7.8 | 4.5 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
|
|
|
| Box | | -1.5 | 125 | O 9.0 | -120 | -125 | | 71 | 11mph | | 2 | STL | R | John Gant | | 4.0 | 7.9 | 0.3 | | 45.7 | 33.2 | 39.1 | | 2 | 32.3 | 1.9 | | -9.9 | -11.2 | -15.5 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | -145 | U 9.0 | 100 | 105 | | | In | | 6 | DET | R | Matt Manning | | 4.3 | 7.5 | 0.4 | | 54.3 | 66.8 | 61.0 | | 4 | 52.0 | 2.7 | | 5.5 | 7.6 | 11.0 | | ● | ● | ● | | 1.05 | 0.69 | 1.00 |
|
|
|
| Box | | -1.5 | -135 | O 7.5 | -110 | -238 | | 72 | 0mph | | 3 | MIL | R | Brandon Woodruff | | 3.9 | 7.3 | 0.3 | | 71.7 | 54.9 | 27.8 | | 1 | 55.0 | 1.8 | | 1.3 | -2.6 | -24.6 | | ● | | | | 0.42 | | |
| | 1.5 | 115 | U 7.5 | -110 | 185 | | | Unknown | | 2 | ARI | L | Caleb Smith | | 2.0 | 5.4 | 0.2 | | 28.3 | 45.2 | 72.2 | | 0 | 18.4 | 0.7 | | -6.8 | -1.4 | 19.8 | | | | ● | | | | 0.91 |
|
|
|
| Box | | -1.5 | 140 | O 8.0 | -115 | -115 | | 77 | 10mph | | 9 | SF | R | Kevin Gausman | | 6.0 | 8.7 | 0.3 | | 70.0 | 57.9 | 57.1 | | 1 | 62.7 | 3.3 | | 16.5 | 16.2 | 3.6 | | ● | ● | ● | | 0.87 | 1.40 | 0.87 |
| | 1.5 | -164 | U 8.0 | -105 | -105 | | | Out | | 3 | LAA | R | Shohei Ohtani | | 3.4 | 7.0 | 0.3 | | 30.0 | 42.2 | 42.9 | | 1 | 23.4 | 1.6 | | -21.2 | -20.0 | -8.3 | | | | | | | | |
|
|
|
| Box | | -1.5 | 145 | O 8.5 | -105 | -115 | | 68 | 5mph | | 5 | COL | R | German Marquez | | 4.9 | 9.3 | 0.3 | | 60.3 | 47.4 | 49.4 | | 3 | 55.1 | 3.0 | | 6.8 | 6.5 | -1.9 | | ● | ● | | | 0.87 | 1.45 | |
| | 1.5 | -172 | U 8.5 | -115 | -105 | | | Out | | 2 | SEA | L | Justus Sheffield | | 3.7 | 6.7 | 0.4 | | 39.8 | 52.7 | 50.7 | | 0 | 30.7 | 2.0 | | -11.5 | -10.6 | -2.8 | | | | | | | | |
|
|
|
| Box | | -1.5 | -125 | O 10.0 | -105 | -200 | | 75 | 4mph | | 13 | HOU | R | Jose Urquidy | | 5.8 | 10.3 | 0.2 | | 61.6 | 49.0 | 45.3 | | 6 | 50.6 | 3.1 | | -5.1 | -6.6 | -5.9 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | 105 | U 10.0 | -115 | 170 | | | R-L | | 0 | BAL | R | Tom Eshelman | | 4.2 | 8.4 | 0.3 | | 38.4 | 51.1 | 54.7 | | 0 | 35.5 | 2.3 | | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.2 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | -1 | -1 |
|
|
|
| Box | | 1.5 | -132 | O 9.5 | -115 | 155 | | 76 | 4mph | | 5 | KC | L | Danny Duffy | | 4.1 | 8.1 | 0.3 | | 48.0 | 68.2 | 32.8 | | 2 | 46.7 | 2.5 | | 8.7 | 11.3 | -20.7 | | ● | ● | | | -1 | 0.76 | |
| | -1.5 | 110 | U 9.5 | -105 | -185 | | | In | | 6 | NYY | R | Michael King | | 4.1 | 8.7 | 0.2 | | 52.1 | 31.8 | 67.3 | | 2 | 35.5 | 2.0 | | -12.9 | -15.8 | 16.0 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
|
|
|
| Box | | 1.5 | -196 | O 9.0 | 100 | 110 | | 75 | 5mph | | 3 | ATL | R | Kyle Wright | | 5.1 | 8.2 | 0.3 | | 45.8 | 63.7 | 56.9 | | 2 | 37.4 | 2.7 | | -1.8 | -2.6 | 6.9 | | | | ● | | | | 1.00 |
| | -1.5 | 165 | U 9.0 | -120 | -132 | | | Out | | 7 | NYM | R | Tylor Megill | | 5.2 | 8.7 | 0.3 | | 54.2 | 36.4 | 43.2 | | 5 | 50.3 | 3.2 | | -2.7 | -1.4 | -11.4 | | | | | | | | |
|
|
|
| Box | | -1.5 | 145 | O 7.5 | 100 | -120 | | 72 | 0mph | | 3 | TOR | L | Robbie Ray | | 3.5 | 7.4 | 0.4 | | 41.2 | 27.9 | 44.1 | | 3 | 31.5 | 1.6 | | -13.4 | -12.9 | -6.0 | | | | | | | | |
| | 1.5 | -172 | U 7.5 | -120 | 100 | | | Unknown | | 1 | MIA | L | Trevor Rogers | | 4.0 | 7.0 | 0.3 | | 58.9 | 72.1 | 56.0 | | 0 | 50.4 | 2.3 | | 8.9 | 8.9 | 1.4 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | -1 | 0.83 |
|
|
|
| Box | | RL | O/U | ML | | WX | | Matchup | | R | H | E | | Win % | RL % | O/U % | | F5 | F5 Win% | F5 Runs | | ML Value | RL Value | O/U Value | | ML Play | RL Play | O/U Play | | ML Res | RL Res | O/U Res |
|---|
| Box | | 1.5 | -161 | O 9.0 | -105 | 130 | | 72 | 0mph | | 2 | BOS | R | Garrett Richards | | 4.3 | 8.2 | 0.3 | | 40.4 | 56.8 | 51.8 | | 1 | 32.2 | 2.3 | | -3.1 | -4.9 | 0.5 | | | | ● | | | | 0.95 |
| | -1.5 | 135 | U 9.0 | -115 | -149 | | | Unknown | | 8 | TB | L | Rich Hill | | 5.3 | 9.2 | 0.1 | | 59.6 | 43.3 | 48.3 | | 5 | 53.9 | 3.4 | | -0.2 | 0.7 | -5.2 | | | ● | | | | 1.35 | |
|
|
|
| Box | | -1.5 | 100 | O 9.5 | -105 | -145 | | 72 | 0mph | | 3 | OAK | R | James Kaprielian | | 6.7 | 11.2 | 0.2 | | 71.8 | 60.1 | 57.1 | | 0 | 66.6 | 4.1 | | 12.6 | 10.1 | 5.8 | | ● | ● | ● | | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| | 1.5 | -120 | U 9.5 | -115 | 125 | | | Unknown | | 5 | TEX | R | Mike Foltynewicz | | 4.1 | 8.0 | 0.4 | | 28.2 | 40.0 | 43.0 | | 1 | 22.2 | 2.1 | | -16.2 | -14.6 | -10.5 | | | | | | | | |
|
|
|
| Box | | 1.5 | -222 | O 7.5 | 100 | 100 | | 67 | 9mph | | 3 | LAD | R | Trevor Bauer | | 3.7 | 6.7 | 0.3 | | 46.1 | 66.5 | 44.6 | | 2 | 34.9 | 1.7 | | -3.9 | -2.5 | -5.4 | | | | | | | | |
| | -1.5 | 175 | U 7.5 | -120 | -120 | | | In | | 5 | SD | R | Joe Musgrove | | 3.9 | 6.5 | 0.3 | | 53.9 | 33.6 | 55.4 | | 2 | 45.3 | 2.1 | | -0.6 | -2.8 | 0.9 | | | | ● | | | | -1 |
|
|
|